this is only a test

this is a picture of my neighbors wooden playground structure blown over in
the 70 mile per hour winds gusts last week

well, the one attempt at convective initiation failed north of
Richfield. Despite the strong surface convergence occurring now with
good southeast winds, the lack of appreciable moisture is certainly a
mitigating factor…and the main upper level wave is still a bit too
far west to compensate for lack of moisture. 80 degree temperature
over a 46 dewpoint supports about 1000-1200 J/kg CAPE here, but all
the cumulus just looks really flat now to the west, as the strongest
convergence is in Baca County where the really dry air is (30
dewpoints or lower!). I’ll keep watching things through 7pm, but the
way it looks now, this gamble I took did not pay off. Really no
biggie. I’ll be on vacation to chase May 3-16.

I am taking a shot at a marginal setup for an isolated, photogenic,
marginally severe storm in far Southwest KS. There is a narrow axis
of 48 to 52 degree dewpoints moving up into far southwest KS providing
900 to 1200 J/kg CAPE where temperatures have warmed into the lower
80s. I am observing a clusted of high based cumulus to my west near
Richfield, KS at this time. It is currently in the dry air where
dewpoints are in the mid-upper 30s… but 46 to 48F dewpoints are
about to become ingested into this highly convergent area, so I am
hoping that a decent isolated storm can result here. We’ll see what
happens. I’m only 100 miles from Dodge, so it’s a decent gamble in my
eyes. I’m due in to work at midnight tonight, so I have time to play
around with whatever develops since it would be moving in the
direction of home.