Comments on: A “cold-core” setup in South Central KS on 2009 April 9? http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549 Just another WordPress weblog Sun, 24 Jun 2012 16:41:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.3 By: Simon http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59527 Simon Thu, 09 Apr 2009 07:17:51 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59527 Mike, I really like your posted graphics! Matt Chatelain, Lela Davis (formerly Knight), and I developed a model with close resemblence to the "Dynamic Conceptual Model" posted above for our Capstone Project last year titled: "Cold-Core 500mb Close-Low Tornadic Events: Analysis and Forecasting Techniques". We focused our attention on tornado events associated with 'occluded' surface boundaries seperated from the traditional 'warm sector' (basically west or northwest of the traditional 'warm sector'). We found that in most cases the traditional 'warm sector' (all these terms are so relative and subjective) never produced tornadic storms. Basically, after analyzing GFS and NAM 0z Forecasts and current data I agree there is a good chance this type of event could occur tomorrow/today. The traditional 'warm sector' will possibly be 'heavily' capped and too far east of UPA support that it appears (like you stated above) there is a small window of opportunity for tornadic cells along an occluded surface boundary in the early afternoon. No way, unless the environment changes drastically from what the models are currently forecasting, would I be caught in the traditional 'warm sector' region tomorrow/today. Simon Mike,
I really like your posted graphics! Matt Chatelain, Lela Davis (formerly Knight), and I developed a model with close resemblence to the “Dynamic Conceptual Model” posted above for our Capstone Project last year titled: “Cold-Core 500mb Close-Low Tornadic Events: Analysis and Forecasting Techniques”. We focused our attention on tornado events associated with ‘occluded’ surface boundaries seperated from the traditional ‘warm sector’ (basically west or northwest of the traditional ‘warm sector’). We found that in most cases the traditional ‘warm sector’ (all these terms are so relative and subjective) never produced tornadic storms. Basically, after analyzing GFS and NAM 0z Forecasts and current data I agree there is a good chance this type of event could occur tomorrow/today. The traditional ‘warm sector’ will possibly be ‘heavily’ capped and too far east of UPA support that it appears (like you stated above) there is a small window of opportunity for tornadic cells along an occluded surface boundary in the early afternoon. No way, unless the environment changes drastically from what the models are currently forecasting, would I be caught in the traditional ‘warm sector’ region tomorrow/today.

Simon

]]> By: Adam Wolff http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59522 Adam Wolff Thu, 09 Apr 2009 05:46:30 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59522 Thanks for the response Mike. I spent the last hour on the site you provided with great success. I will definitely be referring to it in the future. Thanks for the response Mike. I spent the last hour on the site you provided with great success. I will definitely be referring to it in the future.

]]> By: Mike U http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59477 Mike U Wed, 08 Apr 2009 22:03:48 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59477 Thanks for the comments everyone. Wes- I remember seeing you on SpotterNetwork to the southeast of me that day. I purposely tried to make it out to Elkhart on November 10th by no later than Noon in order to make sure I positioned myself the best I could...to limit the potential of "reacting" to things occurring far away if I would have left late. I can't tell you how many times I've left too late for a chase, LOL. Jim- The more "traditional" play certainly does look interesting. What is interesting, though, about November 10, 2008 and October 26, 2006 the areas in the right-front quadrant of the 300-400mb jet didn't produce. I think for much of the day tomorrow afternoon, southeast KS and northeast OK will be in the right front quad of the small jet streak...it will not be until 00z or so when the best forcing (at least at the nose of the jet or getting closer to the much more favorable left-exit region) reaches the better low level moisture/warm sector. I think the "warm sector" event will be mid-late evening from far southeast KS into the Ozarks. The "cold-core" play is strongly dependent on diurnal timing, hence 20-22z or so, I'd be favoring ICT or so. Obviously, this is better chasing territory, too. I think the occluded front will bulge northward over a couple county area around ICT, based on past experience...and the clustered tornado event, if it occurs, may be NORTH of ICT... like Newton perhaps! Adam- On the internet, for more detailed model interrogation, I like to use ARL Ready maps (http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php). That is how I created the 2nd image in this blog. Otherwise, I use the same sources as everyone else, like College of DuPage, UCAR Weather, NCO/NCEP pages, and OU "Hoot" page (http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/models/) Thanks for the comments everyone.

Wes- I remember seeing you on SpotterNetwork to the southeast of me that day. I purposely tried to make it out to Elkhart on November 10th by no later than Noon in order to make sure I positioned myself the best I could…to limit the potential of “reacting” to things occurring far away if I would have left late. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve left too late for a chase, LOL.

Jim- The more “traditional” play certainly does look interesting. What is interesting, though, about November 10, 2008 and October 26, 2006 the areas in the right-front quadrant of the 300-400mb jet didn’t produce. I think for much of the day tomorrow afternoon, southeast KS and northeast OK will be in the right front quad of the small jet streak…it will not be until 00z or so when the best forcing (at least at the nose of the jet or getting closer to the much more favorable left-exit region) reaches the better low level moisture/warm sector. I think the “warm sector” event will be mid-late evening from far southeast KS into the Ozarks. The “cold-core” play is strongly dependent on diurnal timing, hence 20-22z or so, I’d be favoring ICT or so. Obviously, this is better chasing territory, too. I think the occluded front will bulge northward over a couple county area around ICT, based on past experience…and the clustered tornado event, if it occurs, may be NORTH of ICT… like Newton perhaps!

Adam- On the internet, for more detailed model interrogation, I like to use ARL Ready maps (http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php). That is how I created the 2nd image in this blog. Otherwise, I use the same sources as everyone else, like College of DuPage, UCAR Weather, NCO/NCEP pages, and OU “Hoot” page (http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/models/)

]]> By: Adam Wolff http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59475 Adam Wolff Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:38:27 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59475 Hey Mike, I want to thank you for this wonderful educational analysis. Although some of it was over my head, I was able to absorb much of the discussion. Good luck to you if you decide to chase this event. If you don't mind me asking...what software suite do you use for forecasting? Hey Mike, I want to thank you for this wonderful educational analysis. Although some of it was over my head, I was able to absorb much of the discussion. Good luck to you if you decide to chase this event.

If you don’t mind me asking…what software suite do you use for forecasting?

]]> By: Jeff Piotrowski http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59471 Jeff Piotrowski Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:15:02 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59471 Mike excellent discussion I also like that area around Wichita. The 5KM model from 12Z has isolated cells from Tulsa- Wichita looks good also ahead of the Dl. http://charlie.wxcaster.com/wrfcentralnojava.php?fcsthour=36&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP&region=S-PLAINS Mike excellent discussion I also like that area around Wichita. The 5KM model from 12Z has isolated cells from Tulsa- Wichita looks good also ahead of the Dl. http://charlie.wxcaster.com/wrfcentralnojava.php?fcsthour=36&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP&region=S-PLAINS

]]> By: Matt Hughes http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59455 Matt Hughes Wed, 08 Apr 2009 19:06:11 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59455 Nice forecast Mike. I think you're on to something which would be awesome for those of us in Wichita! Nice forecast Mike. I think you’re on to something which would be awesome for those of us in Wichita!

]]> By: Jim Bishop http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59450 Jim Bishop Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:16:22 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59450 Great analysis on the cold core setup. This is very interesting because there will probably be cold core tornadoes in south central Kansas in the mid afernoon. Then a bit later there will probably be the more classic warm sector tornadoes near the dryline/warm front intersection further east near the Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri border region. Good luck tomorrow. - Jim Great analysis on the cold core setup. This is very interesting because there will probably be cold core tornadoes in south central Kansas in the mid afernoon. Then a bit later there will probably be the more classic warm sector tornadoes near the dryline/warm front intersection further east near the Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri border region.

Good luck tomorrow.

- Jim

]]> By: Wes http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549&cpage=1#comment-59448 Wes Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:09:22 +0000 http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=549#comment-59448 This day has the makings of one where there will be tornadoes in the area you highlighted in this forecast, but then be bust everywhere else (though I do think SE KS looks good, it is just a too small of a window of good terrain for me to chance it). If anyone does target this area, be there extra early or you might miss it by a county like I did on the Nov 11, 2008 setup in SW KS. This day has the makings of one where there will be tornadoes in the area you highlighted in this forecast, but then be bust everywhere else (though I do think SE KS looks good, it is just a too small of a window of good terrain for me to chance it). If anyone does target this area, be there extra early or you might miss it by a county like I did on the Nov 11, 2008 setup in SW KS.

]]>