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A powerhouse winter storm will explode over Kansas later today. The NAM and GFS models have been slow to catch on to the rapid deepening of the system versus the ECMWF and UKMET models. A surface low will deepen rapidly over southern KS later on today as a wedge of cold air knifes down western Kansas. Looks like any rain will change quickly to snow between noon and 3pm here in Dodge with bouts of heavy snow through 9pm this evening. 850mb wind progs of 50-60kts at 850mb suggests that winds at the surface will become sustained 30-40mph with gusts to 50mph during the snow.
Even though the ground is initially warm, these strong winds and heavy snow will rapidly cool the surface such that snow will indeed stick rather quickly… and there could be a significant mess for a lot of western KS west of, oh.. a Smith Center to Russell to Great Bend line. I think the real winner in KS may be the corridor from Hill City to Smith Center where some spots may see 7 to 10″+ of snow with around 6 hours of blizzard or near blizzard conditions. I get to go into work at 2pm to work the event here in SW KS… should be a fun one… stay tuned!
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We had our annual Fall chaser party this past weekend in Lawrence at my chase partner Jay Antle’s place. It went very well with about 20 people showing up. The highlight moment of the party was probably the moment I managed to lock myself in Jay’s bathroom when I somehow broke the damn door knob off. Let’s just say I was the only one NOT laughing.. 
Ahhh but it was very much fun, with a ton of great video and BBQ. My very good friend Marcie from Texas came up for it, and it was good to spend some time with her in Lawrence for a couple days since we only get a chance to see each other but once or twice a year, if that. It was a 4 and a half day weekend for me, which was much needed after a hectic past couple of months with projects at work trying to complete my 2005 storm chase highlights DVD (which will be available on my website in about a week!). I came back to Overland Park Sunday morning after Marcie left to go back to TX…and went out to eat with my parents and my brother and his girlfriend who was in town (she goes to school in NY as a photography major).
Every weekend I visit bro-yo and I have to settle things on the lanes… and this weekend was no different.. I got to meet some of his bowling pals who are also good scratch bowlers. It seemed like old times, cuz I saw an old neighborhood friend I had not seen in a long damn time from the junior high school days. We all grew up with the same interest in bowling some 10 or 11 years ago (see "Twelfth Frame" May 2005 blog entry).
On Monday I went over to Lee’s Summit to see Chieeefy (Evan Bookbinder), and his wife and adorable 1 year old son Jake. The absolute cutest 1 year old kid, oh my goodness… He kept giving me the stare down, it was rather intimidating… quite the observer type, like myself 
Chieeefy and I went out for some wings, fish, and chips…which has become a tradition of sorts…to talk shop and storm chasing, and somehow getting my butt back to Kansas City. I clearly didn’t plan my Monday well, because right after I left Lee’s Summitt, I met up with my folks again , with my brother and his girlfriend as well as my older brother and sister… for dollar taco night at Tequila Harry’s which has also become sort of a growing tradition. I’m a huge mexican eater… and I thoroughly dissapointed myself and the rest of my family when I could only devour one… yes ONE taco… after gorging myself at lunch 3 hours prior. I was not happy.
I decided to stick around town Monday night since KU basketball was on. I went over to Jon’s house for the game and got to see my good H.S. buds as well as Jon’s brother Jason and his girlfriend. It was quite the pinball game, the Arizona-KU game, and we came out on the short end of the stick… cuz we be YOUNG. very very YOUNG. And we certainly looked it. It will be interesting to watch the evolution of KU Basketball over the course of this season and in the years to come. So thus the 4-day weekend came to an end back to Dodge I came Tuesday morning. Now it’s time to put my focus on this Pleasant Hill NWS vacancy bid….
A powerhouse winter storm will explode over Kansas later today. The NAM and GFS models have been slow to catch on to the rapid deepening of the system versus the ECMWF and UKMET models. A surface low will deepen rapidly over southern KS later on today as a wedge of cold air knifes down western Kansas. Looks like any rain will change quickly to snow between noon and 3pm here in Dodge with bouts of heavy snow through 9pm this evening. 850mb wind progs of 50-60kts at 850mb suggests that winds at the surface will become sustained 30-40mph with gusts to 50mph during the snow.