High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

February 19, 2007

Central Plains Winter Storm Feb 23-24 [1]

Filed under: Feb 23-24, 2007,General Weather & Forecasting — Mike U @ 6:46 pm

. . .The 533 Low. . .

Boy is this looking interesting.  For the past several days, a majority of the major global spectral model solutions were suggesting the possibility of significant mid-latitude cyclone development over the plains the weekend of Feb 24-25.  Even at the National Storm Chaser Convention this past weekend there was a "buzz" about this upcoming storm… and even research meteorologists and weather enthusiast extraordinaire Howie Bluestein was showing the Day 7 GFS progs before his radar talk. 

What I am seeing here in the models is a storm that may very well rival November 27, 2005 in regards to development, size, and impact over the Great Plains.  The GFS shows a ~533dam 500mb low center near the OK/KS border Saturday 2/24.  Surface development will also be very impressive with a large warm sector ahead of the low.  A surface low will likely track from Southwest KS into Northeast KS…deepening significantly… perhaps to lower-mid 980s millibar MSLP center.  The surface low may actually develop fairly close to the 500mb low center which may enhance the possibility of low topped supercells much like 11/27/2005.  The other thing that is interesting is the fact that I"m off work Saturday, so if the system slows down enough such that central or southern KS looks like a reasonable possibility of low topped supercells, then it’ll be my first chase of 2007!  I’ll try to keep my blog up to date with regards to the latest thoughts I have of this storm through the week…including the blizzard aspect of the storm…as it appears very likely there will be a major… perhaps crippling blizzard over some portion of the Great Plains northwest of the low track.

One thing to note here that is important.  This is still in the 120-144hr time frame… and all the models are now in a really good agreement with each other today.  While this "super ensemble" method of agreement implies increased confidence, it doesn’t mean these models all have a handle on the evolution of this downstream development. Tomorrow, the models may show something quite different… but there will still be a big storm… it’s just the synoptic and subsynoptic details that will not be clear until a day or two out.  One of the things I want to do here on this blog is document the various shifts in model solutions, similar to some of my previous winter blog posts.  


500mb Heights & Vorticity showing the low center over KS/OK

February 13, 2007

Southwest KS Snow Feb 12

Filed under: General Weather & Forecasting — Mike U @ 6:47 am

. . . 4 to 6" of snow across portions of southwest KS . . .

A fairly quick moving storm system along a strong sub-tropical jet produced a swatch of 4 to 6" of snow across portions of southwest KS mainly from Garden City to Scott City northwest to Ness City and Hays.  Here in Dodge we only managed about 1.5" or so, however 30-40mph winds overnight created some drifts as high as 12 to 15".  It’s damn cold out there… 15°F now with 30 mph winds continuing… it won’t get out of the teens today (the 13th) or the 14th!  Meanwhile, back east… what a major crippling blizzard with upwards of 15 to 30" of snow possible over portions of interior New England region.   

Here's the storm total summary for Southwest KS: 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  1030 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.     ..REMARKS..    0429 PM     SNOW             8 N BIG BOW             37.68N 101.56W  02/12/2007  M2.0 INCH        STANTON            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0457 PM     SNOW             14 N DEERFIELD          38.18N 101.13W  02/12/2007  E3.0 INCH        KEARNY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0610 PM     SNOW             NE HOLCOMB              37.99N 100.99W  02/12/2007  M3.0 INCH        FINNEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0628 PM     SNOW             3 NE ULYSSES            37.61N 101.32W  02/12/2007  E3.0 INCH        GRANT              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0645 PM     SNOW             ALEXANDER               38.47N 99.55W  02/12/2007  E3.0 INCH        RUSH               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0648 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 E ALEXANDER           38.47N 99.53W  02/12/2007  M5.0 INCH        RUSH               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0650 PM     SNOW             ENE GARDEN CITY         37.98N 100.86W  02/12/2007  M5.0 INCH        FINNEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER     REPORTED 4 TO 5 INCHES AND STILL SNOWING.    0651 PM     HEAVY SNOW       E LA CROSSE             38.53N 99.31W  02/12/2007  M5.0 INCH        RUSH               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER     MEASURED 5.25 INCHES SNOW DEPTH    0655 PM     SNOW             14 W KALVESTA           38.05N 100.54W  02/12/2007  M2.5 INCH        FINNEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    0659 PM     SNOW             16 NW GARDEN CITY       38.14N 101.07W  02/12/2007  M4.0 INCH        FINNEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER    1017 PM     HEAVY SNOW       E JETMORE               38.08N 99.89W  02/12/2007  M5.0 INCH        HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC  

 

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