Target is north-central OK. 70% GO! The 06z off-hour runs of the GFS and NAM are coming into better focus, looking more like the ECMWF in the kinematic fields at most levels of the troposphere… so I have a little more confidence in the resulting QPF fields. It looks like north-central OK is going to be the sweet spot for this storm…extending into southeast KS. At this time, for the best daytime action, I am thinking Enid to Perry for a target. I’d leave right after work and head to either one of these towns. I’ve pretty much got everything packed and ready to go for a two-nights stay. I have a high enough confidence that a foot of snow will fall in this area (or very near this area) to take a stab at this, and it’s right at the edge of my ~ 3 hour domain I was limiting myself to. Winds during the day Saturday in this region will be 25 to 35 mph, so this should be very interesting… wind driven wet snow! This will make photography a real challenge. I will be busy at work today forecasting for Southwest Kansas, so I will not update this blog until about 4pm or so with just a brief one or two liner “Go/No Go!” and my final target town.
In the graphic below, my target area is in the dashed red oval:
