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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

March 19, 2010

Southern Plains Winter Storm 2010 March 20 [post 3]

Filed under: 2010 Mar 20 — Mike U @ 5:00 pm

It’s a No-Go for a snow/blizzard chase. I have decided at the last minute to cancel this chase.  It isn’t so much that I don’t think there will be a substantial snow event somewhere in OK, it’s just that I am seeing conflicting signals in the models, and I am afraid the mid level cyclogenesis will occur too late and too far east… thus limiting the very excessive snowfall (> 12″ and perhaps up to 18″) potential for much of northern Oklahoma.  I would like to see 700mb cyclogenesis occur sooner during the day Saturday instead of Saturday Night into Sunday when by that time the storm will be entering Arkansas.  This is just too far east, and this will really limit blizzard potential.  A major event requires significant southeast to northwest flow in the 500-700mb layer for Great Plains blizzards… and this will likely set up too late for my liking… as the storm enters the far eastern Plains/Ozarks.  I’d rather experience a nice wind-driven drier snow vs. wind driven wet snow like this system will have, too.  Non-meteorological factors are at work here too, such as the fact that I have been living out of a suitcase every 5 to 7 days it seems since late January… I want to relax and enjoy some March Madness this weekend… and I have some things to get done around the house on my 3-day weekend.  So therefore, I have decided to pass on this storm.  I will still blog about it occasionally tomorrow and Sunday.

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