High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

April 29, 2010

Chase Trip Update, 6:00pm CDT 4/29

Filed under: Early Chase Trip 2010 — Mike U @ 6:11 pm

Western plains storm outlook is bleak for remainder of my vacation. While I’m sitting here on a farm road in Stafford County, KS waiting for storms to develop this far south… if they do… I might as well give an update on my thoughts for the remainder of my vacation.  With the mean longwave trough axis slowly shifting from the central plains into the eastern states… moisture will be essentially non-existent on the western plains from southwest TX points north through the western Nebraska.  That said, there may be an outside chance at chaseable convection in the very cold air aloft environment if surface winds can converge near small scale surface lows.  The GFS has been hinting at that either sunday, monday, or tuesday… but even this is a total longshot at best.  I will most likely head back to Dodge following this chase today, since I’m not all that far from home.  I will then re-evaluate my next move tomorrow (Friday) morning.  I may head out to New Mexico again or something and do some hiking and/or landscape photography perhaps.  Or I just may stay home on my remaining vacation days and get caught up on some things around the house, etc.

I had contemplated the idea of chasing in Iowa tomorrow, but I don’t like the idea of storms racing northeast at 50+ mph within the jet core.  the North Texas scenario I was talking about earlier isn’t looking so hot either… the low level winds just won’t be there to support vigorous (tornadic?) supercells south of Dallas in the early/mid evening hours.  More later…

As I end this post at 6:10pm, there is finally an updraft base developing to my immediate west-southwest between Seward and Larned.

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