NAM model suggests 4-6" possible in Dodge City… we shall see. Below are a couple graphics from the NAM model from the 00z/20th run (6pm CST 1/19).
NAM model showing the northeastward ejection of a fairly compact upper low. An optimal track for Dodge City to receive the brunt of the upward forcing for heavy snow would be very close to what this model is projecting in it’s 18 to 30 hour forecast.
Here is the QPF (quantative precip forecast) off the same NAM model… a 48-hour storm total. It is showing the 0.50" line north of Dodge City with the 0.75" inch line getting close to here. A standard 1:10 ratio would mean 5 to 8" of snow.
I still think the heaviest snow will be just southeast of Dodge City, but the slower movement of the storm is promising for longer duration of lift over Dodge City. One thing seems fairly certain though, and that is precip type. I am about 94% certain this will be all snow for us in Dodge City! What little warm layer aloft there is… will be evaporatively cooled to below zero at the onset of the precipitation…and will remain below 0°C for the duration of the snow. I am working a rare 4am to Noon overtime shift tomorrow, so that will be fun… I’ll have my camera with me at work to take a few snaps… of what should finally be the first adequate accumulating snow here in Dodge!