Models are too warm! 15z (10am CST) surface observation plot (Img 1) shows the arctic cold front surging south into the Texas Panhandle this morning. Both the GFS and the NAM models are too warm with temperatures behind the front across western Kansas. The GFS model from the 06z ru
n valid 15z (a 9 hour forecast) was predicting a surface temperature in Dodge City of around 34°F (Img 2), a solid 12 degrees warmer than the actual 15z observation! The NAM 3-hour forecast from the 12z run was showing about 28°F, or about 6 degrees too warm (Img 3). In all three images, I drew in (dotted blue line) the 22°F isotherm to better illustrate the error in the models in handling this shallow arctic airmass.
disclaimer: "The meteorological
views/forecast
thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"
November 30, 2007
Great Plains Winter Storm Dec 1 [post 4]
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