I made a last-minute decision to decide to chase this setup now that it
appears upper 40s/near 50 dewpoint may make it as far northwest as
southwest Nebraska beneath the cold 500mb temperatures and near the nose
of the 400mb potential vorticity anomaly (the red contours in the
attached image). The image is from the 11z RUC model valid 22z which
shows a favored area for the so-called "cold core" setup for low-topped
supercells near the mid level potential vorticity anomaly and resultant
surface low/enhanced surface vorticity max. If any short-lived
tornadoes can occur in this setup, this would be the ideal place for
them to occur. I need to also be mindful of a bit farther east
translation of activity as the morning HRRR would suggest, but usually
the farther west play is best in these setups... especially looking at
satellite this morning and seeing the upper wave making a beeline for
the Nebraska Panhandle/southwest Nebraska by afternoon. I will be out
the door by 7am for a target somewhere near Ogallala, NE by Noon or so
(with adjustments likely)
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