High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

March 19, 2006

Beginning to unfold: Southwest KS Snowstorm

Filed under: General Weather & Forecasting — Mike U @ 11:35 pm

entry_20060319_1.jpgEverything appears to be on track for some rather significant snow accumulations for Dodge City and points surrounding in western Kansas. The GFS nailed the ~06z convective burst several runs back, as evident by the regional radar shown here (05z). This is the genesis of the impressive wrap-around warm conveyer leaf as the storm matures overnight just southwest of southwest KS. I still foresee thundersnow in the 12-15z window across southwest KS, including DDC. At the heaviest, snowfall rates may easily exceed 2″ per hour, mainly during the mid-morning hours. All versions of the RUC model (including the development RUC on the FSL/RUC webpage) through 12 hours show a significant amount of QPF through 18z (noon) Monday. See no reason to doubt this from a simple pattern recognition standpoint with a fully maturing mid-latitude cyclone strengthening along the “golden path” for Dodge City. entry_20060319_2.jpgAccording to all the model soundings I’ve interrogated, it appears we will change over to snow here in DDC nearly at the onset of the big “blob” of (convective) precip heading northeast towards SW KS as seen on radar. It will initially be a rain/snow mix, but quickly change to a sleet/snow mix then all snow just before 12z. See the Skew-T graphic, a 9hr forecast from the RUC model. Look at the massive warm-advection signature (winds veering with height) in the lower 300mb or so of the sounding! More later. It’ll be tough for this weather weenie to get some sleep knowing what’s coming!

entry_20060319_3.jpg

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