13 hours
into the epic drive from Kansas City to Great Falls, Montana has landed
us in Casper, WY for the moment as of noon MDT. Incredibly hot airmass
has pushed well into the interior with a noon reading of 95 degrees in
Casper, and highs of 110F are possible over western Kansas today. Wow!
Our thought process hasn't changed since early this morning with a plume
of quality moisture (characterized by mid-upper 50F dewpoints) funneling
westward through Montana, beneath steep lapse rates and strengthening
mid-upper flow. Powerful trough that will bring us a string of opportune
days remains off the Oregon coast per early afternoon water vapor
imagery. Forecast soundings and shear profiles still look fantastic for
rotating storms across western Montana early this evening as the
increasing moisture/daytime heating couples with strong, veering flow
with height. Really the only lingering concern is with the placement of
synoptic scale lift. The HRRR/RAP hold the lead wave further west,
yielding an arc of supercells along the MT/ID border across the higher
terrain. Without a 120 mph speed limit, this is simply unreachable, so
we remain hopeful of additional evening development 00-03Z toward GTF.
Already one dust devil across the rolling hills and Cu development over
the higher terrain to the north. Stay tuned! -
Bookie