Sat, 7 May 2011 11:36:16 -0400
Saturday Morning | |
Day 1 is a down day as Rob and I drive to meet up with Mike. Mitch
and Candice have already started their northward trek. They are sti
ll considering a southern target for tomorrow while Mike Rob and I wi
ll be farther north. The 12Z NAM continues to give us multiple opti
ons including one in NW KS ahead of the developing surface low. The
most likely target remains in wrn NE to as far north as extreme swrn SD.&n
bsp Strong moisture advection beginning today will allow a plume of 60-6
5F dewpoints and 3000K+ CAPE to cover the region. There is decent 5
00 mb flow aloft but I'm intrigued to see where the pockets of 850 mb wi
nd end up residing. Wherever the strong crossover between 850 and 5
00 is in wrn NE may end up being the play as long as there is something
trigger storm initiation.
On another note the 12Z NAM does introd
uce something to keep our eyes on in south-central KS. It's a long
shot and likely capped (as the NAM fails to break out any precip) but a
small area between Medicine Lodge and Wichita shows strong sfc convergence
and plenty of flow aloft to make things interesting. Time will tell
!
Jon
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