Sun, 8 May 2011 00:42:37 -0500
Late Saturday Night Update | | Rob, Jon, Mitch, and Candice all arrived safely in Dodge City this
evening. They are staying at the Super 8 in town, while I get to deal
with thousands of moths. Yay is me. Tomorrow is a chase day... moths
or no moths... and if the EMC/NCEP 4km WRF model from this evening is
any decent prognostication of how the real atmosphere will play out
tomorrow, then Kansas will light up like a Christmas tree with
numerous supercells all up and down the dryline. There's actually
going to be some halfway decent convergence on the dryline tomorrow in
Kansas...including not too far northeast of Dodge City. This is
something to watch out for... even though the EMC WRF is the only
numerical model showing such a robust and favorable supercell signal
down the dryline. A minor shortwave trough will actually move across
the central plains tomorrow afternoon allowing enhancement along the
dryline. This may just be the impetus to initiate supercells. Take a
look at this evenings 00z run of the EMC/NCEP 4km WRF. Left image is
simulated composite reflectivity valid 8:00pm CDT Sunday evening.
Right image is a two panel comparison of 3-hr convective QPF from the
EMC WRF and the Operational NAM model.
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