Sun, 8 May 2011 05:24:19 -0500
5/8 5am thoughts | | Morning boys and Candice! Last night's run of the EMC 4km WRF was
rather enticing showing a string of pearls from western Nebraska down
into Oklahoma. Unfortunately, I don't think this is realistic. The
15 to 18hr RUC and HRRR are really keying in on moisture mix-out
across much of Kansas with highest CAPE nosing into
western/southwestern Nebraska. Latest GFS and NAM 06z runs still do
show convective attempts across southwest Nebraska at the nose of the
upper 90s heat axis. My idea for a target is bounded by
Ogallala-North Platte-McCook based on this (especially the 06z GFS
solution). We've really gotta get away from the moisture mix-out,
which means get north. Attached is the 06z GFS valid 03z and the 06z
NAM valid 00z both showing a small convective QPF signal (although not
as robust as previous runs)
It will be a fairly late show I do believe, thus even if we need to
get toward I-80 (which I think it looks like we probably will), then
we can still leave as late as Noon or so, but I'm going to be prepared
to leave my house by 11am. I will meet you guys down at your hotel
probably around your check-out time. -Mike U
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