Sun, 18 Mar 2012 10:08:46 -0500
Storm chase target 3/18: Eastern OK Panhandle into SW Kansas | Not much has changed in my storm chase target decision. Now that the
short term higher resolution models are within range of the event,
confidence is increasing regarding the target forecast. It looks like a
very broad area of supercell chasing prospects today all the way from
west-central KS south-southeastward all the way down into West Texas
(perhaps down to Midland, TX). My target is Liberal to Garden City, KS
simply by virtue of my starting point: Dodge City. This could be a
so-called "gentlemans" chase or "backyard" chase... just driving
southtwest about a half hour with supercells very near Dodge City by
sunset. This is quite possible and in fact seems quite likely,
therefore I will be making this my number one target area of choice.
Show in the image on this post is the 13z RUC model valid 00z showing
the model generated convection (in black) along the dryline with
surface-based CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg in the warm, moist sector ahead of
the dryline extending up to Garden City-Dodge City.
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