Tue, 12 Jun 2012 11:11:21 -0500
Chase Day June 12 Target: Northeast NM to East-central CO. Stage in Lamar, CO by early afternoon with final target decision by around 230pm CDT | I am still a bit torn between the Raton Mesa/Clayton area and the Palmer
Divide/east-central CO area. Despite the early morning MCS in the TX
Panhandle/W TX this morning, moisture is still hanging around the
southern TX Panhandle. The RAP and NAM both show a tongue of moisture
and CAPE extending northward through the central High Plains beneath
westerly mid level flow. It's not the greatest moisture in the world by
any stretch of the imagination, but I think that 1500 to perhaps 1800
J/kg SBCAPE will reach the eastern edge of the Palmer Divide (areas just
east/southeast of Limon). All the high-res models generate some storms
off the Palmer Divide and roll them east-southeast into the moist axis
by early evening. There is a suggestion of more isolated activity in
this area, whereas there is the suggestion in the convection allowing
models of things growing into a small MCS off the Raton Mesa/Clayton
area southward by early evening. I will leave DDC and head to Lamar, CO
for lunch by around 1930 UTC and make a final call at that point.
|
|
