Mon, 25 Jun 2012 15:07:09 -0500
6/25 2 PM MDT Chase Update - Canadian Bound | | After a 30 minute chit chat with the Wilson Creek, SK border officers about
the ins and outs of photography, we finally did it! CANADA!!! First time f
or the both of us and we are very excited. We are headed to Maple Creek (ar
rival time about 3:30 PM) for analysis and targeting.A northwest moving
gravity wave (possibly generated by an early moning supercell), has ignited
an arc of elevated convection along the SK/AB border between Cavedish and
Kindersley, and the models actually had this early activity. The real show
should commence much later this afterno/evening as a strong shortwave troug
h lifts from Idaho across theCanadian border. High temperatures in the l
ow to perhaps mid 80s (sorry, we are staying with US units) and unseasonabl
y moist dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield a very unstable airmass with
3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong convergence along the western edge of the
low level easterlies, coupled with mid level height falls and increasingly
favorable shear profiles should yield an environment primed for scattered s
upercells along the NW edge of the cap. Activity may initiate in SE AB or S
W SK, with a northeast storm motion. We should have ample daylight to 11 PM
. More to come later. BOOKBINDER/UMSCHEID
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