Sat, 30 Jun 2012 17:28:07 -0500
Fwd: 4:30 PM CDT Jun 30 Chase Update | Had an awesome early afternoon at a park in Spearfish, SD and have made
our way down east of Rapid City. After watching a nice storm go up over
the Black Hills, we have decided not to go after it since it appeared to
be rooted in the terrain and driven by orographics and very weak shear.
Meanwhile, hi-res radar imagery shows strong cyclonic flow just east of
RAP with a number of feeder convective rolls spiraling in toward areas
just east of the city. The Cu field continues to grow with several areas
of strongly agitated Cu east and northeast of Rapid City. The deep layer
shear is also much improved with eastern and northern extent. Unlike
yesterday, the upper winds are from the northwest, which may lead to
storms struggling to maintain buoyancy as their anvil shadow is cast
downstream along the expected storm motion. Additionally, storm spacing
may be an issue with the entire axis of instability primed to go, so
mergers and outflow dominance may take over with time. Still hoping we
can maintain some discrete nature for a while, and that scenario looks
quite promising given the initial low level flow fields. Should be a fun
show regardless with maybe our first evening lightning photography
attempt afterwards. - Bookbinder
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