Tuesday May 24th potential tornado outbreak still on track (23.12z NAM model run shown)
* *  Mike Umscheid PHOTOGRAPHY & STORM CHASE BLOG   * *

Mon, 23 May 2011 11:29:08 -0500
Tuesday May 24th potential tornado outbreak still on track (23.12z NAM model run shown)
The latest NAM model has now trended to the ECMWF and GFS of a wider
warm, moist sector extending into central Kansas. This lends greater
confidence in signficant tornado outbreak extending well into Kansas
for Tuesday. This will also likely lead to a greater probability of
storm chaser dispersion as there should be scattered tornadic
supercells from basically I-70 corridor south to the Red River across
the central Plains. Trying to fine-tune where the greatest threat
area amidst this corridor is likely an exercise in futility because
significant tornadic supercell ingredients should be very impressive
over this entire area. The only caveat to this is a large nocturnal
MCS or morning explosion of convection that could substantially alter
the warm/moist sector like on May 11th. Major cities like Wichita,
Oklahoma City, and Tulsa are at risk to tornadoes Tuesday evening.