Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:20:09 -0500
Fcst composite chart for Fri. aftn based on ECMWF from earlier today | | Today's 12z morning run of the ECMWF model continues to suggest an
interesting storm chasing scenario across east-central NM into adjacent
far west Texas. The upper low will be slow to move out, and the northern
stream jet will likely be a little more amplified, which would suggest a
stronger push of colder air through the central Plains. The surface
front will likely become quasi-stationary across northeastern New Mexico
to the central or northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma by
late afternoon. Significant moisture advection of +14 to +16C dewpoints
into west Texas will likely suggest a lot of warm sector stratus cloud
development (it is October, after all), so this may complicate potential
instability development in the warm sector. Nevertheless, closer to the
dryline, low level thermodynamics will be better and the morning ECMWF
did suggest development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE across east-central
NEW Mexico where the low level thermal ridge of +22C temperature at
850mb noses northeast toward the moisture. I am liking the Fort Sumner
to Tucumcari, NM area for late-afternoon severe storms with tornado
potential developing through the evening across West Texas as low level
jet ramps up after sunset. This would be a pretty good drive from Dodge
City -- likely 6 hours -- so it will have to continue to look pretty
good to pull the trigger on a chase toward this potential target area.
Stay tuned!
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