Hale Center-Lockney, TX Supercell (12 October 2012)
* *  Mike Umscheid PHOTOGRAPHY & STORM CHASE BLOG   * *

About This Shoot
Date: 12 October 2012
Location: West Texas from Plainview to Lockney, TX
Shoot Type: Storm Chase
I was sorely out of position when the Hale Center-Abernathy supercell developed along I-27. I spent about an hour and a half playing catch up, ultimately getting into the inflow region of the storm north of Lockney. I managed to capture some nice structure + lightning images before the storm went on a downtrend after sunset.

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Preliminary Storm Reports from 12 October 2012

1630 UTC SPC Products from 12 October 2012

Categorical Convective Outlook

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Probabilistic Hail Outlook

Probabilistic Wind Outlook

Evening Meteorological Charts from 12 October 2012

250mb Chart

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Surface Chart

12 October 2012

Hale Center-Lockney, TX Supercell

Thu, 18 Oct 2012 23:27:57 -0500
-Plainview Supercell 2012- Wide angle image of the Hale Center-Plainview supercell, along with lightning flash, from Oct 12, 2012 shortly after sunset
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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 23:50:51 -0500
Hale Center, TX Supercell toward the end of its life with lightning and a power flash. 12 October 2012
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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 21:18:14 -0500
Chase is done.. in Tulia, TX grabbing a bite to eat, drive back to Dodge, probably home by 2am.

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 20:57:22 -0500
Wow. managed to photograph late stages of Hale Center TX supercell. structure+tall lightning+glowing transformers!!

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 18:15:08 -0500
Nice Cb north of Lubbock!
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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 16:19:27 -0500
417pm, 2 cells east of clovis moving quickly northeast, weak now, will continue east on hwy 86

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 14:23:52 -0600
Initial storm development in my target area near Clovis, NM
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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 14:59:46 -0500
some low topped bases developing all around Clovis 45dbz echoes forming just to my S in sfc convergence zone

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 14:12:36 -0500
210pm 68F with stratus breaking up in Clovis. becoming cumuliform in nature. radar echoes Roswell-Artesia area has my eye.

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 12:37:27 -0600
in Clovis, NM... not exactly clear what next move is.. so will hang out here

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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 12:59:25 -0500
heading to Clovis, gives me best option to get west faster if needed. moisture/instability is pulling west closer to upper low. NM show?

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 09:56:35 -0500
Lots of cold air, gotta think farther south, latest RAP model runs favoring Morton TX area, should be there by 2pm

Fri, 12 Oct 2012 08:05:29 -0500
chase update 8am. On the way to TX panhandle

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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 01:00:10 -0500
Storm chase status is GO for tomorrow Oct. 12 target Clovis, NM to Hereford, TX
I will be departing Dodge City early in the morning, sometime between 6
and 7am, for a destination southwest of Amarillo... perhaps as far
southwest as Clovis, NM for what continues to look like a fairly
impressive severe weather and potentially tornadic setup across West
Texas and/or the Texas Panhandle. The place to be tomorrow is just south
of the stationary front which will become warm frontogenetic late in the
day. Storms will likely form near or just west of the TX-NM border
around the Clovis area and move northeast into the Texas Panhandle
toward the advancing warm front where low level shear will be enhanced.
Fig. 1 shows the latest GFS model solution of the 500mb pattern valid
tomorrow afternoon at 21z (4pm CDT). Fig. 2 shows the latest surface
forecast from the RAP 04z model run valid 22z tomorrow (5pm CDT). I
outlined in blue my target area. I want to be in my target region by
early afternoon in order to give me flexibility for repositioning should
I need to do so.


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Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:20:09 -0500
Fcst composite chart for Fri. aftn based on ECMWF from earlier today
Today's 12z morning run of the ECMWF model continues to suggest an
interesting storm chasing scenario across east-central NM into adjacent
far west Texas. The upper low will be slow to move out, and the northern
stream jet will likely be a little more amplified, which would suggest a
stronger push of colder air through the central Plains. The surface
front will likely become quasi-stationary across northeastern New Mexico
to the central or northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma by
late afternoon. Significant moisture advection of +14 to +16C dewpoints
into west Texas will likely suggest a lot of warm sector stratus cloud
development (it is October, after all), so this may complicate potential
instability development in the warm sector. Nevertheless, closer to the
dryline, low level thermodynamics will be better and the morning ECMWF
did suggest development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE across east-central
NEW Mexico where the low level thermal ridge of +22C temperature at
850mb noses northeast toward the moisture. I am liking the Fort Sumner
to Tucumcari, NM area for late-afternoon severe storms with tornado
potential developing through the evening across West Texas as low level
jet ramps up after sunset. This would be a pretty good drive from Dodge
City -- likely 6 hours -- so it will have to continue to look pretty
good to pull the trigger on a chase toward this potential target area.
Stay tuned!
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Mon, 08 Oct 2012 13:48:45 -0500
Storm chasing possible Fri 10/12
Friday, Oct 12 continues to look impressive for severe weather (perhaps
a regional outbreak?) south of the quasi-stationary front. West Texas
along the dryline/Pacific cold front looks quite inviting for a storm
chase. I think anywhere from Springfield, CO south to Midland, TX is in
play at this point.