 | About This Shoot | Date: 12 October 2012 | Location: West Texas from Plainview to Lockney, TX | Shoot Type: Storm Chase | | Synopsis:
I was sorely out of position when the Hale Center-Abernathy supercell developed along I-27. I spent about an hour and a half playing catch up, ultimately getting into the inflow region of the storm north of Lockney. I managed to capture some nice structure + lightning images before the storm went on a downtrend after sunset. |
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Preliminary Storm Reports from 12 October 2012
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1630 UTC SPC Products from 12 October 2012
Categorical Convective Outlook
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Probabilistic Tornado Outlook
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Probabilistic Hail Outlook
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Probabilistic Wind Outlook
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Evening Meteorological Charts from 12 October 2012
250mb Chart
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500mb Chart
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700mb Chart
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850mb Chart
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Surface Chart
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Fri, 12 Oct 2012 01:00:10 -0500
Storm chase status is GO for tomorrow Oct. 12 target Clovis, NM to Hereford, TX | I will be departing Dodge City early in the morning, sometime between 6
and 7am, for a destination southwest of Amarillo... perhaps as far
southwest as Clovis, NM for what continues to look like a fairly
impressive severe weather and potentially tornadic setup across West
Texas and/or the Texas Panhandle. The place to be tomorrow is just south
of the stationary front which will become warm frontogenetic late in the
day. Storms will likely form near or just west of the TX-NM border
around the Clovis area and move northeast into the Texas Panhandle
toward the advancing warm front where low level shear will be enhanced.
Fig. 1 shows the latest GFS model solution of the 500mb pattern valid
tomorrow afternoon at 21z (4pm CDT). Fig. 2 shows the latest surface
forecast from the RAP 04z model run valid 22z tomorrow (5pm CDT). I
outlined in blue my target area. I want to be in my target region by
early afternoon in order to give me flexibility for repositioning should
I need to do so.
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#1 | 
#2 |
(click on thumbnails for pop-up of larger images) |
Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:20:09 -0500
Fcst composite chart for Fri. aftn based on ECMWF from earlier today | Today's 12z morning run of the ECMWF model continues to suggest an
interesting storm chasing scenario across east-central NM into adjacent
far west Texas. The upper low will be slow to move out, and the northern
stream jet will likely be a little more amplified, which would suggest a
stronger push of colder air through the central Plains. The surface
front will likely become quasi-stationary across northeastern New Mexico
to the central or northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma by
late afternoon. Significant moisture advection of +14 to +16C dewpoints
into west Texas will likely suggest a lot of warm sector stratus cloud
development (it is October, after all), so this may complicate potential
instability development in the warm sector. Nevertheless, closer to the
dryline, low level thermodynamics will be better and the morning ECMWF
did suggest development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE across east-central
NEW Mexico where the low level thermal ridge of +22C temperature at
850mb noses northeast toward the moisture. I am liking the Fort Sumner
to Tucumcari, NM area for late-afternoon severe storms with tornado
potential developing through the evening across West Texas as low level
jet ramps up after sunset. This would be a pretty good drive from Dodge
City -- likely 6 hours -- so it will have to continue to look pretty
good to pull the trigger on a chase toward this potential target area.
Stay tuned!
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(click on thumbnail for pop-up of larger image) |
Mon, 08 Oct 2012 13:48:45 -0500
Storm chasing possible Fri 10/12 | Friday, Oct 12 continues to look impressive for severe weather (perhaps
a regional outbreak?) south of the quasi-stationary front. West Texas
along the dryline/Pacific cold front looks quite inviting for a storm
chase. I think anywhere from Springfield, CO south to Midland, TX is in
play at this point.
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