St. Francis, KS Marginal Supercell (8 April 2013)
* *  Mike Umscheid PHOTOGRAPHY & STORM CHASE BLOG   * *


About This Shoot
Date: 8 April 2013
Location: near St. Francis, Kansas
Shoot Type: Storm Chase
Rating:
Synopsis:
After debating two target areas, I made a late decision to head northwest toward my northern target around Goodland, KS. I arrived on-scene of a supercell northwest of Goodland in the early evening, but the supercell structure did not last all that long and evolved into a non-supercell severe storm with some other storms forming around it toward sunset.

Other Shoots Around This Date

29 Mar
30 Mar
31 Mar
1 Apr
2 Apr
3 Apr
4 Apr
5 Apr
6 Apr

7 Apr

8 Apr
9 Apr
10 Apr
11 Apr
12 Apr
13 Apr
14 Apr
15 Apr
16 Apr
17 Apr
18 Apr

Most Recent Shoots

14 Jul 2020
Synopsis: ...
13 Jul 2020
Synopsis: ...
11 Jul 2020
Synopsis: ...
9 Jul 2020
Synopsis: ...
8 Jul 2020
Synopsis: ...

Navigate Other Shoots (by year)
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Navigate Other Shoots (by month)
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
November 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
February 2019
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
November 2015
October 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
December 2011
October 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
February 2010
January 2010

Preliminary Storm Reports from 8 April 2013


1630 UTC SPC Products from 8 April 2013


Categorical Convective Outlook

Probabilistic Tornado Outlook

Probabilistic Hail Outlook

Probabilistic Wind Outlook

Evening Meteorological Charts from 8 April 2013


250mb Chart

500mb Chart

700mb Chart

850mb Chart

Surface Chart

8 April 2013

St. Francis, KS Marginal Supercell


Tue, 09 Apr 2013 02:53:22 -0500
-St. Francis Supercell 2013- This high-based supercell storm moved northeast from near Burlington to near St. Francis on 8 April 2013
  
(click on thumbnail for pop-up of larger image)

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 18:59:03 -0500
LP supercell north of Burlington COme 545pm mt
  
(click on thumbnail for pop-up of larger image)

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 10:24:30 -0500
Chase Day April 8, 2013 -- Southwest Kansas Region
Two targets in mind today...

#1: This the primary chase target with lowest risk, on paper. Most
models generate convective QPF (storms, for the lay person) in this area
where convergence will be fairly strong as the synoptic dry intrusion
and highly mixed "hot" lifts northward into cooler, moist air with
southeast winds. This area will be closer to the upper level support
for large scale atmospheric lift.

#2: Despite the dearth of convective QPF on most of the traditional
models... there are ensemble members of the SREF and even the NCEP GFS
model are generating some convection on the dryline. This area
highlight is the traditional "hot spot" on the dryline from Lipscomb, TX
to Buffalo, OK. Many great long-lived supercell storms in similar
environments have initiated in this corridor. It is a favored meso-beta
scale convergence max on the dryline, especially by late in the
afternoon and early evening as the dryline ceases its eastward push and
begins to retreat. It will be hot, by early April standards, along the
dryline in this area with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s.
This warmth will be enough to erode convective inhibition, especially
right at the dryline (where the dewpoint gradient is). The key is how
much of a convective inhibition gradient there will be east of the
dryline. The RAP and NAM models suggest good warm east of the dryline a
good 60 to 100 miles, so any convective plumes that do go in the
convergence hot spot will have a chance to survive and grow into a
supercell thunderstorm.

Right now, as of 1030am, I am 50/50 on #1 or #2. I will likely make my
final call right before I depart later this afternoon.
  
(click on thumbnail for pop-up of larger image)