heading south into the northern texas panhandle . there is a storm trying to develop 30 miles to my southwest . I will get gas here in gruver then get outside of town and watch things develop visually and on radar
I left Dodge City shortly after 10am with a target of Gruver-Spearman,
TX in mind. I have seen nothing yet to change this... in fact, the
15z RUC model reinforces this target. A meso-beta scale sweet spot
will likely develop after 2pm across the north-central Texas Panhandle
where near-1000 J/kg CAPE will nose into impressive surface
convergence with cyclogenesis occurring. I should be in Gruver around
1:30pm or so, and I will re-evaluate the situation at that point.
Attached below is a graphic of the RUC model valid 21z showing
convection developing in the northeastern Texas Panhandle at the nose
of 800-1200 J/kg SBCAPE. This is from the 03z run of the RUC valid
+18 hours.
