A classic, compact and fast-moving upper low with an intense mid level
potential vorticity anomaly will be moving across Kansas today. 500mb
temperatures around the center of the closed low will be down to -30C!
It is so cold aloft that the surface warm nose of mid to upper 50s degF
over mid 40s degF would yield 500-700 J/kg of surface-based CAPE.
During the critical 20-22z time frame, the best potential vorticity
advection and resultant lower tropospheric response will most likely be
from Hays to Great Bend, KS. I am starting off at Goodland, so I will
be hitting the road here shortly at 9:30am or so in order to get down to
Hays-Russell by 12:30pm or so. Attached is a morning run of the RUC
model valid 21z with simulated reflectivity and the mid level PV anomaly
with surface winds. The other image is last night's NSSL WRF simulated
reflectivity run showing an arc of convection developing across central
KS by late afternoon.
