After an excellent morning in Belle Fourche, SD, Mike and I are headed
into the Badlands region in search of landscape photography and
hopefully some wild bison (and other native wildlife). We will then head
south toward the Nebraska sandhills to meet back up with Jay and chase
some high-based severe convection. Models continue to focus a
post-frontal ribbon of moisture across western Nebraska with a nice
pocket of instability as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. Storms
should fire along the convergence driven by modest post-frontal upslope
flow across NW Nebraska. With very deep mixing to possibly 600mb,
coupled with decent cloud-bearing shear profiles, we are hopeful for
some nice storm structure across the barren sandhills region early this
evening. - Bookbinder
Wednesday evening we are driving to our motel for the night in Belle
Fourche, SD. Evan and I should be there around 8pm MDT or so. The
sky has quite a milky appearance here in the western Dakotas with
smoke obviously in the air from fires way out west/southwest.
Tomorrow, Thursday June 28 (Day 6):
The NAM shows pretty good moisture/instability on post-frontal
easterly winds into western Nebraska. After a visit in the Badlands
east of the Black Hills in the morning, we will set our sights on
the Nebraska Panhandle somewhere, it would appear right now. I like
the aggressive QPF signal in the NAM model. There will be enough
westerly flow in the mid/upper levels (50 knots at 300mb as far
south as Alliance, NE), so organized severe storms appear likely.
It could be tough chasing as storms move into the desolate
Sandhills, but photography can be quite good. Status: Chase Day
Friday June 29 (Day 7):
The mid/upper flow still looks pretty good from almost the due west
across northern Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Low level
convergence will be maximized somewhere from central South Dakota
into north-central Nebraska. This also looks like a pretty decent
chance at chaseable severe storms given the forecast CAPE and wind
shear combination. Status: Chase Day
Saturday June 30 (Day 8)
The GFS shows a minor wave moving southeast around the periphery of
the central U.S. ridge into eastern North Dakota/Minnesota. This
will bring a weak front south into central South Dakota by evening
with a favored area for chaseable storms perhaps around the
Mobridge, SD area. The band of 50-70 knots at 300mb will be shifted
northward into northeastern SD and eastern ND, so it would appear we
will be farther north on Saturday. Meanwhile, a ridge will be
building over the high plains as a new trough forms along the
Pacific Northwest coast. Status: Chase Day
Sunday July 1 (Day 9)
The Pacific Northwest trough will move inland and the focus will
shift back west into Montana. So, as if right now, it looks like we
will potentially have one more Montana chase day as moisture is
pulled back northwest into this region as pressures fall in Montana
in advance of this shortwave trough. Status: Chase Day
Monday July 2 (Day 10, last day)
The last chase day looks to be a decent one, potentially, if the GFS
is right as Pacific jet stream energy enters the northern Dakotas
and interacts with abundant moisture with very high CAPE likely and
southwest mid/upper winds providing excellent shear. If we do
indeed chase in North Dakota this day, we will need to pull another
all-nighter drive back to Kansas City, as I need to be back sometime
early afternoon July 3. Status: Chase Day
