The time is 8:15am MDT, and Evan and I are currently in Kindersley, SK.
At this time, there are already elevated supercells crossing the
US-Canada border northwest of Havre, MT. This trend will continue
through the late morning and into the early afternoon, so we need to get
moving here in a bit and head southeast to Swift Current to catch any
early afternoon supercells which could quickly become surface based.
Tornadoes could occur as early as 1:00pm MDT today as a very impressive
upper low lifts northeast into northwest Montana later today.
Outlook:
After today's chase, we will likely stay for the night somewhere just
north of the US-Canada border then make the trip back south into the
states Wednesday. Wednesday looks like a down day, but the
Thursday-Saturday time frame (June 28-30) looks pretty good from
northern Nebraska into central South Dakota for repeated supercell
possibilities in a zonal flow pattern with high instability/moisture in
place.
We crossed the Sask./Alberta border on Trans. CanadaHighway 1 and notice
d the winds had shifted from east to southwest, indicating a sfc low had de
veloped off to our north. Based on this,and the look of the cloud field,
we took Highway 41 north out of Medicine Hat, AB and watced Cu become tower
s and then several huge Cb in a matter of minutes. Currently racing toward
Oyen to intercept what, from the distance, looks to be a raging supercell.
Current temp 86F with a dewpoint of 67F. Pretty amazing for the interior of
eastern Alberta. With the lead wave aloft just now coming in from the sout
hwest, we are very hopefully about this intercept in the next 45 minutes. B
OOKBINDER
After a 30 minute chit chat with the Wilson Creek, SK border officers about
the ins and outs of photography, we finally did it! CANADA!!! First time f
or the both of us and we are very excited. We are headed to Maple Creek (ar
rival time about 3:30 PM) for analysis and targeting.A northwest moving
gravity wave (possibly generated by an early moning supercell), has ignited
an arc of elevated convection along the SK/AB border between Cavedish and
Kindersley, and the models actually had this early activity. The real show
should commence much later this afterno/evening as a strong shortwave troug
h lifts from Idaho across theCanadian border. High temperatures in the l
ow to perhaps mid 80s (sorry, we are staying with US units) and unseasonabl
y moist dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield a very unstable airmass with
3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong convergence along the western edge of the
low level easterlies, coupled with mid level height falls and increasingly
favorable shear profiles should yield an environment primed for scattered s
upercells along the NW edge of the cap. Activity may initiate in SE AB or S
W SK, with a northeast storm motion. We should have ample daylight to 11 PM
. More to come later. BOOKBINDER/UMSCHEID
