Evan Bookbinder and I will be departing Great Falls by 1030am or so and
heading into Canada. 700mb temperature zone of +10 to +12C will be up in ca
nada, so that's our target. We should be up in the target area by aroun
d 4pm mdt. High instability with cape approaching 4000 j/kg as far north
as northeast of medicine hat
When we get back to the hotel in Great Falls, I will upload a few
images from today at Glacier NP, including a bizarre scene that
unfolded right in front of us along the Going to the Sun Road at
Glacier NP. There was quite a bit of snow along the road in many
places through the heart of Glacier NP where elevation rose above
6,000 feet near the Logan Pass. There was a remnant pillar of snow
right adjacent the rock face, probably up to 20 feet tall, which had a
temporary "unstable snow" sign that the park rangers put there next to
it.. as they knew that it was probably about to fall. Well, sure
enough it did... and we were there to hear it. Evan and I both have
before and after pictures of this moment. In fact, I have a picture
of Evan standing next to the sign before it fell (but not in the
direct line of the pillar of snow should it finally collapse). When
it fell, it fell directly onto the road, effectively blocking it. As
more cars approached the scene, people got out to help move big chunks
of the old snow and ice until a 4x4 vehicle was able to start a path
through to open a lane up to get through. The waterfalls all through
the park were awesome from all the snow melt that was going on. There
was one instance along the road where multiple water falls were
crashing down right on the edge of the road which provided some of the
most unusual scenes I've ever seen. All in all, this was one heck of
a fun trip through Glacier NP!!
Tomorrow, June 25 (Day Three) looks to be a chase day, but the
potential target is fairly broad at this point from southwestern
Saskatchewan down into northern Montana. More details on that
tomorrow morning.
We are starting in Great Falls, MT and will end the day here at the same
hotel as we got another night. So, Jay (Jay is out on his own) will
join Evan and I in my Jeep and we will head to Glacier and the amazing
Going to the Sun Road. If it looks like a supercell is imminent, we'll
scrub the Going to the Sun Road and go after the storm! The RAP and the
HRRR models suggest a small storm, perhaps supercell, could form in the
Heart Butte-Browning areas right along the east edge off the mountains.
Things are changing quickly as the lead shortwave impulse has come across
the higher terrain of Montana in concert with peak heating, the return of
abundant low level moisture (55-60F dewpoints) and strong vertical shear.
Visually, one very impressive/isolated cell has developed a very crisp,
back-sheared anvil northwest of Great Falls. This storm is about 100 miles
NW of our current location, and a right moving supercell should afford a
slow eastward turn. With its slow movement we hope to be in place to
intercept before 9 PM. (This leaves us a good 2 hours of daylight). This
storm is quite impressive on radar for so early in its life cycle as well,
and appears well underway to acquiring supercell structure if not already.
Very excited! - Bookbinder
13 hours
into the epic drive from Kansas City to Great Falls, Montana has landed
us in Casper, WY for the moment as of noon MDT. Incredibly hot airmass
has pushed well into the interior with a noon reading of 95 degrees in
Casper, and highs of 110F are possible over western Kansas today. Wow!
Our thought process hasn't changed since early this morning with a plume
of quality moisture (characterized by mid-upper 50F dewpoints) funneling
westward through Montana, beneath steep lapse rates and strengthening
mid-upper flow. Powerful trough that will bring us a string of opportune
days remains off the Oregon coast per early afternoon water vapor
imagery. Forecast soundings and shear profiles still look fantastic for
rotating storms across western Montana early this evening as the
increasing moisture/daytime heating couples with strong, veering flow
with height. Really the only lingering concern is with the placement of
synoptic scale lift. The HRRR/RAP hold the lead wave further west,
yielding an arc of supercells along the MT/ID border across the higher
terrain. Without a 120 mph speed limit, this is simply unreachable, so
we remain hopeful of additional evening development 00-03Z toward GTF.
Already one dust devil across the rolling hills and Cu development over
the higher terrain to the north. Stay tuned! -
Bookie
The time is almost 6:30am and we are less than an hour from North
Platte, NE after driving all night. Well, Evan has been doing all the
driving so far, but I'm about to take over so he can get some sleep.
We are still planning on continuing the drive as far northwest as we
have daylight, as the best area for severe storms/supercells will be
up in the Great Falls area. The NSSL WRF model shows a nice supercell
signal around or just north of Great Falls from 00-03z. At our
current pace, we can reach Great Falls by 01z... which is 7:00pm
mountain time. Sunset in Great Falls is about 9:30pm MDT (0330z). So
that's the plan as of right now... another update later on today.
