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Not much has changed in my storm chase target decision. Now that the
short term higher resolution models are within range of the event,
confidence is increasing regarding the target forecast. It looks like a
very broad area of supercell chasing prospects today all the way from
west-central KS south-southeastward all the way down into West Texas
(perhaps down to Midland, TX). My target is Liberal to Garden City, KS
simply by virtue of my starting point: Dodge City. This could be a
so-called "gentlemans" chase or "backyard" chase... just driving
southtwest about a half hour with supercells very near Dodge City by
sunset. This is quite possible and in fact seems quite likely,
therefore I will be making this my number one target area of choice.
Show in the image on this post is the 13z RUC model valid 00z showing
the model generated convection (in black) along the dryline with
surface-based CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg in the warm, moist sector ahead of
the dryline extending up to Garden City-Dodge City.
Sunday is the last day of my three day weekend, and since I have this
day off (barring an overtime request from work), I will make a chase day
out of it. There is quite a bit chatter amongs the facebook chasing
community regarding a more specific target of the Childress-Shamrock, TX
area... and justifiably so. The CAPE/Shear combination looks fantastic,
especially for mid/late March as some of the initial jet streak energy
begins to impinge on the high plains by early Sunday evening. The
corridor of good looking parameters for supercells will extend northward
into Southwest Kansas, and since this is obviously a much closer
potential target to chase, I will strongly favor a more north bias. On
paper, the parameters for tornadoes look a bit better farther south,
simply because 58-61F dewpoints will probably be closer to initiation
versus in southwest KS where immediate supercell inflow moisture may
have dewpoints of, say 55 to 58F. There will likely be a lot of storm
chasers out Sunday given the first classic looking chase event of the
season for the Great Plains.. which is another reason why I, personally,
am favoring a secondary target of opportunity to chase (OK Panhandle
into Southwest KS vs. Childress/Shamrock, TX area).
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