Wow. Already a tornado watch in effect as of 1:30pm across all of
Southwest Kansas. Will be departing Dodge City around 2:30 or so
depending on how things look with radar and visible satellite trends.
The NAM solution was a total mis-forecast for southwest Kansas. There
is a greater risk now for tornadoes across much more of southwest and
west-central Kansas since the stratus is eroding and mid 60s dewpoints
are surging back west on east winds. I may not be going very far from
Dodge City. Final decision on where to go, you'll just have to
monitor the CHASE MODE page with real-time graphics on the left hand
side to see where I ultimately went and which storm I'm on.
The dawn hours have arrived -- of what, on paper, looks to be one of
the most explosive Great Plains severe weather outbreak in quite some
time -- in terms of the potential for multiple, long-lived,
destructive tornadoes. I will be storm chasing today, on my one true
day off work between ending evening shifts and beginning midnight
shifts late Wednesday Night. I will be hanging around Dodge City
until around 2:00 to 2:30pm or so, which at that time, the surface
focus for storm initiation will actually not be too far from here.
The initial surface-based storms will probably form in an area from
Kinsley to Greensburg to Pratt after 3:00pm and continue developing in
an explosive manner through the afternoon. A surge of warm air will
develop northward from western Oklahoma into portions of far
southwest/south-central KS greeting a cooler, much higher relative
humidity airmass along either the Highway 50 or 54 corridor. This is
where the initial triple point will be... and a focus for this initial
development. By late afternoon/early evening, say after 5pm,
additional storms will develop in perhaps an even more explosive
manner farther south... along the OK-KS border and points south all
along the dryline in central Oklahoma. The 06z NAM model depicts
supercell thunderstorm development as far south as the Dallas-Ft.
Worth metroplex by 6 or 7pm. The low level wind shear in combination
with 3500 to 4500 J/kg Surface-based CAPE will yield support the
development of very aggressive supercell thunderstorms all the way
from south-central Kansas south to North Texas. All storm chasers
should be very careful, especially considering the number of storm
chasers that will likely be out. Storm chasers will be out in huge
numbers today. I will likely observe storms/storm structure from a
safer distance (which is what I usually do anyway), as many other
storm chasers will likely be up close and personal to large tornadoes.
A final chase strategy will be decided by midday.
The latest NAM model has now trended to the ECMWF and GFS of a wider
warm, moist sector extending into central Kansas. This lends greater
confidence in signficant tornado outbreak extending well into Kansas
for Tuesday. This will also likely lead to a greater probability of
storm chaser dispersion as there should be scattered tornadic
supercells from basically I-70 corridor south to the Red River across
the central Plains. Trying to fine-tune where the greatest threat
area amidst this corridor is likely an exercise in futility because
significant tornadic supercell ingredients should be very impressive
over this entire area. The only caveat to this is a large nocturnal
MCS or morning explosion of convection that could substantially alter
the warm/moist sector like on May 11th. Major cities like Wichita,
Oklahoma City, and Tulsa are at risk to tornadoes Tuesday evening.
Since Tuesday May 24 is really my only day off to possibly chase, I
have been keeping an eye on the numerical model trends regarding a
storm chase setup. As each model run of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF come
in, the signals of a severe weather outbreak become increasingly
clear. In fact, given the anticipated upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints
across much of the warm sector, an outbreak of tornadoes seems quite
possible, if not likely. The question is where the center of activity
will be focused. The NAM insists on a smaller area of warm sector,
only pushing as far north as north-central Oklahoma. The GFS, on the
other hand, is more aggressive with a push of warm, moist air into
much of Kansas ahead of a very impressive mid level jet streak/cold
air advection. The 500mb pattern looks really, really good...
regardless of which model you look at. By Monday night, a target
region of interest for me will most likely emerge. I'm hoping for a
GFS type scenario as it would spread the storm chasers out across
Kansas, Oklahoma, and N. Texas. Attached below are the 12z Sunday
morning model runs of the NAM and the GFS:
After a string of 7 evening shifts, I will have a day off on Tuesday,
May 24th, which I had on the calendar a possible chase day if the
pattern was right and it wasn't ridculously far away. As it stands
now, there is a very high probability that a substantial southwestern
upper low/trough will develop and approach the plains. The ECMWF
model has been the fastest model with this next system while the
deterministic GFS model has been the slowest. Attached in this post
are the GFS and the ECMWF 144-hour forecast valid 12z Tuesday the 24th
(from this Wednesday morning's 12z run). It certainly looks like
Monday and/or Tuesday will be active for severe weather on the plains
worthy of a storm chase. Will continue to monitor this potential set
up for a chase and post some followups on this chase mode blog:
well, the one attempt at convective initiation failed north of
Richfield. Despite the strong surface convergence occurring now with
good southeast winds, the lack of appreciable moisture is certainly a
mitigating factor...and the main upper level wave is still a bit too
far west to compensate for lack of moisture. 80 degree temperature
over a 46 dewpoint supports about 1000-1200 J/kg CAPE here, but all
the cumulus just looks really flat now to the west, as the strongest
convergence is in Baca County where the really dry air is (30
dewpoints or lower!). I'll keep watching things through 7pm, but the
way it looks now, this gamble I took did not pay off. Really no
biggie. I'll be on vacation to chase May 3-16.
I am taking a shot at a marginal setup for an isolated, photogenic,
marginally severe storm in far Southwest KS. There is a narrow axis
of 48 to 52 degree dewpoints moving up into far southwest KS providing
900 to 1200 J/kg CAPE where temperatures have warmed into the lower
80s. I am observing a clusted of high based cumulus to my west near
Richfield, KS at this time. It is currently in the dry air where
dewpoints are in the mid-upper 30s... but 46 to 48F dewpoints are
about to become ingested into this highly convergent area, so I am
hoping that a decent isolated storm can result here. We'll see what
happens. I'm only 100 miles from Dodge, so it's a decent gamble in my
eyes. I'm due in to work at midnight tonight, so I have time to play
around with whatever develops since it would be moving in the
direction of home.
Shortly after photographing the structure of the Perryton storm's shelf
cloud, I continued east on a county road about 8 miles south-southwest of
Booker, where I stopped to photograph some of the fairly vivid
cloud-to-ground lightning. As the storm approached, I booked it east to
Road 1265 where the core of the storm overtook me and I received copious
amounts of pea to penny size hail which covered the road about 6 miles south
of Booker. After this was over, I made my way back to Dodge City.
After the first storm dissipated and moved east near Canadian, I decided to
intercept another fairly strong storm that was approaching Perryton from the
Oklahoma Panhandle. This storm was moving east-southeast and would be a
good intercept on the way back home to Dodge City. This was a nice little
surprise and ended up resulting in my best images of this chase. The shelf
cloud associated with this storm was rather photogenic as I approached it
over northeastern Ochiltree County southeast of Perryton. I followed it
south then back to the east along some county roads, stopping every few
miles along the way to photograph.
This was a solo chase while I was on my 10pm to 6am shifts. I knew
this was going to be an early show as far as storm initiation was
concerned, and given the chase target was a little more than two hours
from Dodge City, I decided to make a go of it. Very cool temperatures
aloft and marginal moisture of 45 degree dewpoints would yield about
800 to 1200 J/kg SBCAPE. I targeted the area around Spearman, TX.
The first storm I intercepted was one which formed to my southwest
between Stinnett and Spearman. Unfortunately, this storm was moving
east-northeast through the desolate ranch land of eastern Hutchinson
and Roberts County. I had to drive all the way east to Hwy 70 before
heading south for an intercept. I waited on the storm in northern
Roberts County near the Canadian River. I then followed the storm
southeast along Hwy 283. The sequence of images shown here are of the
storm during this portion of the chase through Roberts County:
