Jay, Stacie, and I are currently on I-29 heading south between Fargo and Aberdeen at this time. Jon, Rob, and Mitch are behind us about 10-15 miles. Day 6… what a day of decisions. We left Bismarck with a target of south-central SD in mind. We drove about 30-40 miles and Jon Finch called asking if we were chasing the Devils Lake, ND area today. I told him no, because we needed to get south for logistical reasons. After Jon called, we actually started interrogating this area for a kicks and giggles. It looked really, really good to us. We were trying to figure out why we would want to blow off a very convergent low center area with upper 60s dewpoints and nice southeast to east southeast winds…along with an outflow boundary. After talking this possibility over with Rob, Mitch, and Jon, all 6 of us decided that we couldn’t resist this area. It was actually the closest target to our location at that time.
We turned around before we got to SD back north on US83 — target of Devils Lake. The ob was persistently very good at Devils lake in the mid 80s with upper 60s dewpoints and a southeast to east southeast wind. The only thing that had us worried… and was quite risky…was the lack of upper level flow and the proximity to the Canada border. Storms would be moving with a pretty decent northerly component.
After a lunch in Devils Lake, we hung around at the shore of Devils Lake awaiting initiation of storms. A small storm did eventually develop… leading to a fairly picturesque LP supercell near Cando. As this storm developed, however, the old outflow boundary was pushing back to the south into our area with northeast winds and stable air. This killed any possibility of tornadoes. The base on our storm was high to begin with. This storm eventually suffered a quick death given its small overall size. Other similar storms tried to go up southeast of this original storm, but failed. The outflow boundary was just too much for this area. It didn’t simmer enough north of the boundary, and this was a significant failure component.
So, we ran into Tim Samaras, Joe Golden, Carl Young, and company before we got to I-29 about 17 miles south of the international border; sharing the laments of the pitiful 2006 chase season up to this point. It’s always fun to run in to other chaser friends at various points during the trip.
[~2.5 hrs later...]
I-29 now exit 114 South Dakota. It was 83 degrees a few minutes ago and quite windy at that last pit stop… we may have had a bit of a heat burst from some dying storms, I guess. We noticed lightning to the southwest about an hour earlier which had diminished. Listening to Art Bell right now; it’s helping keep Jay going
Here’s a photo of the LP marginal supercell from yesterday’s chase near Cando:

Now here’s an interesting photograph. Jon’s car is an essential feeding frenzy for a large conglomeration of flies, bees, and other small flying critters. A gourmet of an assortment of splattered dead bugs attracted all these flies and bees… yeah, rather unpleasant, but had to document this feeding frenzy:

For Day 7 (Monday 5/29) we are targetting the tail-end of the front where a pseudo-triple point of sorts may set up in south-central KS. This target will be on the edge of moderate 500-250mb flow, but CAPE should be high and convergence appears to be strong enough according to the NAM model to get a storm to go up… although it may be late. If not, then we just drive back to Dodge for the night, so Stacie can begin her trek back to Fort Worth. Dodge City appears to be a good location to setup for Tuesday’s chase from western OK to northeastern NM. More later from this kamikaze drive, perhaps!









I left Dodge around 11:30 am and set off to Boise City, OK. High based storms formed over the Raton Mesa early in the afternoon and rolled east to the TX-OK-NM tri-border northeast of Clayton. I actually
April 22nd wasn’t exactly the most exciting chase of my life, but I didn’t expect to see truly spectacular storms either. I decided to chase because it was during my 3-day weekend, and the setup appeared marginally favorable for sustained supercell thunderstorms rolling off the high terrain of eastern New Mexico into moist, unstable air in West Texas. I departed Dodge City around 8:30am or so for a target around Clovis. I was banking on initiation of storms near the Tucumcari-Clovis areas or the far southwestern Texas Panhandle by late afternoon. I arrived in Clovis around mid-afternoon only to find south-southwesterly winds at the surface and dewpoints in the 30s. Convergence was weak at best in this area and the flow certainly wasn’t of upslope component — which was rather frustrating. I had to make a decision at this point whether to completely call this chase a bust and head back home empty-handed… or continue on to the south where there was much better low level forcing in southeastern New Mexico to the northeast of Roswell.
I intercepted two gorgeous high-based severe storms on Sunday 4/23 not too far from home, for a welcome change! Sunday actually began with me arriving home from a long chase in West Texas on Saturday 4/22 (chase account forthcoming soon) where I intercepted some marginal high based storms and photogenic lightning southwest of Lubbock. I arrived home from that chase just after sunrise around 7:15am. I slept from the time I got home until about 12:30pm or so, given the fact I knew that Sunday’s chase would be close to Dodge City.
Last week (Friday 4/14) I chased an impressive high-based supercell thunderstorm in Northwest Oklahoma. This chase was one of those “high-risk, high-reward” type of chases in that it appeared to be a very marginal setup for supercells, and especially tornadoes. I was off work last Thursday and Friday and was watching the Friday setup with some interest along the dryline. What perked my interest in the setup for Friday was 1) a subtle triple point convergence of the dryline and a washed-out, weak front that had slowly pushed into far northwest OK… 2) long hodographs with 50-70kts of upper level winds… 3) intense afternoon heating into the lower-mid 90s to allow the cap to break. The NAM model was also showing a very small area of convective precip in about 3 or 4 consecutive runs, which was a pretty strong signal that initation may occur in far western/northwestern OK. I figured if initiation would indeed occur, it may just be one or two storms given the lack of an upper level system to enhance deep tropospheric lift. It would just be mainly boundary layer forcing. I also figured, from a photographic standpoint, that a supercell in this environment would be very photogenic. This was the forecast I posted in a storm chase discussion group the day before (Thursday 13th):
I targetted the area from Salina to Concordia, KS for the development of supercell thunderstorms by early afternoon April 6th. I left Dodge City around 10:30am and set out for the Ellsworth, KS area. When I approached Kinsley, however, I decided to continue heading due east towards Stafford instead of northeast towards Great Bend. The short-fuse composite was suggesting first initiation would occur just a bit farther south than I had thought. I loafed around Quivira NWR for a little while when towering Cu were developing to my south around noon. I then decided to go to Lyons to top off the tank and await development. Well, things were happening fairly fast, and I never did make it to Lyons. I filled up in Nickerson and at this time a fresh storm was already underway southwest of Hutchinson. This was my target storm.