I’m just going to have to be patient. Apparently this little mid
level wave that is coming across the Rockies now is promoting some
slight 500-700mb warm advection right now which is suppressing
development. As the wave gets closer to my target area, though, this
should cease, and with better forcing, should see convective
initiation… I hope. It’s looking like another late show… but if
it anything like yesterday, I need to wait until sunset, because a
storm formed in my target area right at sunset near Chugwater…
sunset is still some 3.5 hours away. the area to my northwest is
still trying to produce towers every now and then… will keep
watching! I’m staying put here along Hwy 26 near Ft. Laramie, WY
–
Mike Umscheid Photography
http://gallery.underthemeso.com
mesomike@gmail.com
Looking northwest up highway 26 as I was driving to Torrington, small
towering cumulus were trying to form in the area I’m most interested.
I think I’ll continue driving northwest in the direction of Ft.
Laramie/Guernsey, WY.
–
Mike Umscheid Photography
http://gallery.underthemeso.com
mesomike@gmail.com
3:20pm CDT. Sitting along the highway 26 corridor near the
nebraska/wyoming border. There are some cumulus and perhaps an
attempt at baby towers to my south…there is a subtle wind
convergence axis that had just developed (sse winds versus ese winds
to the south of Scottsbluff). I am watching that to my south…as
well as the area to my farther northwest in the Guernsey, WY area
where the RUC continues to indicate convective precip breaking out
there…and there is some weak convergence noted there as well…with
Douglas having a light southwest wind ad a 44 dewpoint. Will the best
storm actually form off the laramie mountains or from surface
convergence? I think where I am stationed at is a good middle ground.
Farther south, however, the shear is weaker, so I have to keep that
in mind. Will keep waiting right around here.
–
Mike Umscheid Photography
http://gallery.underthemeso.com
mesomike@gmail.com
I am currently in Alliance, NE late this morning. The general area of
interest is very near where I am now… and I have a fairly broad
target at this point. An outflow boundary may be at play as well
later this afternoon from the morning thunderstorm complex northeast
of me across north central Nebraska. This may help push even higher
dewpoints farther back to the west later on in the day. The winds may
all go southeast everywhere, which would suggest heading west towards
Torrington for upslope/terrain forced storms. So, my broad target
basically extends from east of a line from Lost Springs to Cheyenne,
Wyoming…into much of the Nebraska Panhandle. I will narrow in on a
more focused target by early afternoon probably. The mid level
temperatures/baroclinic zone is very similar to that of yesterday, so
there is a persistence component to today’s chase forecast as well.
–
Mike Umscheid Photography
http://gallery.underthemeso.com
mesomike@gmail.com
Wow, Chadron is all full, so I’m heading to Alliance instead!
–
Mike Umscheid Photography
http://gallery.underthemeso.com
mesomike@gmail.com
