Looking at forecast upper level winds/heights, current surface
obs/winds and expected pressure falls across central New Mexico… I’m
seeing visions of Trinidad 2001 running through my mind (A day where I
saw my westernmost, highest elevation tornado). High Theta-E will get
pulled back northwestward into the Raton Mesa region. This looks like
an excellent Raton/Trinidad initiation day with storm motions taking
development into Las Animas County or something like that. We may head
southwest from Lamar… perhaps as far southwest as the I-25 corridor.
I think (and hope) the NAM is holding on to the stratus too long today
in southeast CO, hence the surface T and CAPE minimum there… but all
the forcing signals are fantastic for an area downstream of Raton Mesa
into southeast CO.
–
Mike Umscheid Photography
http://gallery.underthemeso.com
mesomike@gmail.com
