Bookbinder and I are in Denver this morning. We decided to drive to Denver because it appeared Saturday’s best play would be east of the Laramie Range or northeast Colorado. Now it appears the best play will be farther east as a surface wind vorticity center holds on across northwest Kansas most of the day with a low level convergence max somewhere in the HLC-MCK-HDE region. Upper 60s to lower 70s dew points will exist across this region by late afternoon/early evening and it appears that there may be an outflow boundary at play as well from ongoing morning convection near the NE/KS border. The mid-upper level winds actually look better now farther southeast than what the GFS had been showing over the past couple of days (which was the reason we decided to head to Denver in order to position ourselves better). With a narrow ribbon of 30 knots at 850mb and 45 knots projected at 700mb arcing through Kansas, the target area seems more clear cut, so long as we remain on the edge of a rather impressive EML cap.
Reasons for abandoning the NE CO/SE WY play: While the upper flow remains outstanding across the divide into our original target area, the low level shear is paltry at best with 0-3km flow remaining < 15 knots. Additionally, the low level flow trajectories suggest the moisture arrives from a modified continental airmass via a Nebraska route, with the Kansas route of true quality moisture impeded by a local area of kinked low level northerly flow that hangs across NW Kansas. This barrier was suggested in 00Z model data, and has subsequently become evident on visible satellite imagery this morning.
This could be a big, big day along the KS-NE border early this evening. I hate to jinx it, but …. well I won’t go there. Forecast hodographs look excellent with the CAPE and lower 70s dews. As it appears now, we will be targeting this region and not the high plains adjacent the terrain (downstream of the Laramie Range… secondary target).
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Quick Summary from Day 2 (June 18th):
We decided to hit up a Colorado Rockies game for our down day. We first headed to the Wynkoop Brewpub in LoDo (Lower Downtown Denver) and then walked on over to Coors Field. We sat up high in the left field upper deck. Rockies won 2-0. We watched some rather picturesque small showers/storms to the east and southeast at sunset which provided nice pinks and gold colors against the Denver skyline. Rather pretty!
Begin: Hays, KS
End: Denver (Westminster), CO
Day Two mileage: 370 mi
Trip mileage: 805 mi
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Mike U and Evan B
Down day. Driving to position for Saturday which looks good east of the Laramie Range and the Front Range. We will likely head to Boulder to enjoy the late day/evening. Saturday begins a potentially long stretch of good high plains/northern plains chasing with persistent upper level jet stream flow across the rockies and high plains with good moisture in place. More later
Supercell, mammatus, lightning, colored sky, and heat burst — North-central Kansas near Osborne
Evan Bookbinder and I had a fun evening of storm photography across northern Kansas along the Highway 281 corridor around the Osborne, KS area. At 10:00pm, we experienced an awesome heat burst which rose the temperature to 95 degrees with a 45 degree dewpoint. Winds were out of the south gusting to around 50 mph at times. Below are a few photos from this storm chase shoot.
Begin: Lee’s Summit, MO
End: Hays, KS
Day One miles: 435
Trip miles: 435
Morning of the first chase day at Evan’s house. We are planning on chasing in Central Kansas at the nose of the southern upper level jet streak… so we are blowing off the moderate risk in Iowa and Minnesota despite the 10% tornado contour and hatched area. Evan and I think that Central Kansas is a good target where southerly low level winds will converge nicely along the stalling out front. This target will also have stronger upper level flow…where the Iowa target has a significant upper level wind weakness. We think Iowa will see a lot of storms, mostly of the HP variety. Tornadoes will most likely be of poor contrast and perhaps mostly wrapped in rain and probably not all that long-lived. They don’t usually make for good photography. The Central KS target will see the greater probability of “cleaner” storms, more isolated, and less of a propensity of being HP. There is a lower tornado risk here, but that’s the sacrifice for playing this “wildcard” target. We plan to be in Salina by mid-afternoon.
I will be departing Dodge City for Kansas City late in the morning Wednesday for my second storm chasing trip of the 2010 season. I will be chasing with my good friend and fellow NWS forecaster (Pleasant Hill/KC, MO) Evan Bookbinder and will be meeting up with him at his house tomorrow evening. The forecast pattern looks very good for almost daily storm chasing opportunities as there will be sustained west-southwest or southwest jet stream across the Rockies and into the adjacent western plains. Day One, Thursday 6/17, a significant mid-latitude cyclone will move rapidly across the northern Dakotas, and our idea is to chase along the advancing dry intrusion/cold front where the front will interact with extreme instability and very high moisture content. Supercells will be likely with tornadoes a possibility east of the Siouxland area of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota.
Beyond Day One. The front will move slowly into the central Plains and weaken as it does so on Day Two (Friday 6/18). It will be moving south into weaker flow aloft with supercell less likely. We will decide later whether to chase Friday across northern/northeast Kansas or to just position for Day Three (Saturday 6/19). Saturday will mark the beginning of a sustained period of chasing across the northern/central High Plains and into Nebraska and the southern Dakotas. Next week could be quite active!
