Stay away from the sleet! The goal of this snow/blizzard trip is to stay away from mixed-phase precipitation as much as possible. It’s inevitable that there will be at least a little bit of freezing rain/sleet at the onset of the storm, but a prolonged period of this mixed precipitation only cuts down on snow totals, so in that regard, I must hedge north. At the same time, I want to get into the good wind aspect of this storm, which will probably be a bit farther southeast… however the MSLP field during the height of the storm is a bit deceiving, because farther northwest where the MSLP gradient is forecast to be just a bit more relaxed closer to the arctic ridge axis… there will still be a strong gradient and 30-45 kt winds in the 900-800mb layer, therefore during heavy precipitation, these will mix to the surface in frequent gusts. Right now, based on what I was looking at last night from the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian models… and taking into account the stubborn mixed precipitation phase of the storm… am thinking of any of these three towns/cities to experience this storm from late Wednesday through Friday:
- Pampa, TX
- Canadian, TX
- Woodward, OK
Unfortunately, it looks like the heart of this storm will occur during the 00-12z Friday time frame… at night. Nevertheless, at daybreak Friday, it could be quite a scene at all three of these above locations. Here is the impressive 60-hour QPF from the latest 12z NAM model:
All models agree on a 12-18″ max snowfall hit! This is going to be one impressive storm with one hell of a nice moisture transport into the cold air. Will not talk much about the details now, but I threw a 4-panel together of the latest NAM model which is in line with the other models, even if it is 72-84 hours out. 850mb wind fields suggest that blizzard or near blizzard conditions will also occur.
The second image shows my broad target area (in yellow) to “hunker down” and enjoy this storm for a couple of days. I have some hotel rewards points to burn, and what better way than to enjoy a wonderful southern plains blizzard!
Significant snow possible Thursday 1/28 across OK/TX Panhandles into western/northern Oklahoma! And I plan on being there for it, since a) Dodge City looks to be missed once again and b) I am not due back into work until Saturday morning 1/30 after getting off my last midnight shift at 6am 1/27. The brunt of this storm will occur Thursday. This is perfect, such that I should be able to leave Dodge City before any snow occurs, drive no more than 4 hours to get to a target town where I will stay for two nights (Wednesday Night and Thursday Night) then head back to Dodge City sometime late Friday once road crews clear the major highways. This is shaping up to be an impressive, yet fairly small-scale storm, as a vigorous system digs into the Desert Southwest… then lifting out across West Texas Wednesday night andn into the Red River valley and Oklahoma Thursday. The Gulf of Mexico will open up nicely, and a crucial northern stream trough across the Great Lakes region will bring cold air down through the Great Plains just as significant precipitation begins to occur. It appears that there will be a small corridor of near blizzard or even blizzard conditions given the expected tight MSLP gradient between the surface low (~1007mb) across North Texas and the arctic high across the northern Great Plains (~1038mb). Below are a couple of charts from today’s 18z GFS model:
