Stay away from the sleet! The goal of this snow/blizzard trip is to stay away from mixed-phase precipitation as much as possible. It’s inevitable that there will be at least a little bit of freezing rain/sleet at the onset of the storm, but a prolonged period of this mixed precipitation only cuts down on snow totals, so in that regard, I must hedge north. At the same time, I want to get into the good wind aspect of this storm, which will probably be a bit farther southeast… however the MSLP field during the height of the storm is a bit deceiving, because farther northwest where the MSLP gradient is forecast to be just a bit more relaxed closer to the arctic ridge axis… there will still be a strong gradient and 30-45 kt winds in the 900-800mb layer, therefore during heavy precipitation, these will mix to the surface in frequent gusts. Right now, based on what I was looking at last night from the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian models… and taking into account the stubborn mixed precipitation phase of the storm… am thinking of any of these three towns/cities to experience this storm from late Wednesday through Friday:
- Pampa, TX
- Canadian, TX
- Woodward, OK
Unfortunately, it looks like the heart of this storm will occur during the 00-12z Friday time frame… at night. Nevertheless, at daybreak Friday, it could be quite a scene at all three of these above locations. Here is the impressive 60-hour QPF from the latest 12z NAM model:
