Blizzard conditions appear more likely in Dodge City — particularly in the 12am to 12pm Christmas Eve day time frame. The new 00z NAM model is in and it appears more favorable for blizzard conditions around western Kansas. Now that we are zeroing in on this storm as it is within the CONUS RAOB network, the models should finally begin to lock into a solution — which favors 850 to 700mb cyclogenesis over southern/eastern Kansas. Frontogenesis fields also look more favorable to the west of the low, thanks to the arctic air intrusion from the surface to 700mb from Montana and Wyoming. The position of the 1036+ High and the sub-1000mb Low is classic when compared to historic western Kansas blizzard events. I’ve done some research on this subject, and tomorrow I’ll show a composite chart of MSLP pattern of 20 Central High Plains blizzard cases dating back to 1948. See the chart below:
WTF!?
Comment by Larry — December 22, 2009 @ 10:44 pm