High Plains Drifter

Another dud for Dodge?! Round one of the event is over and done with.  We had around a tenth of an inch of freezing rain topped off with a little bit of sleet and snow (which measured to around 0.1″ depth here at my house).  I’m letting my 4-inch rain gauge thaw out to find out the exact measurement at the house.  The main storm over AZ and NM will be moving almost due east today…with the main PV anomaly likely remaining far enough south to keep Dodge City out of the mix for decent precip rates today and tonight.  I think over the next 18 hours or so we may run up a total of 2 or maybe 3″ or so, but at this point, based on my latest thinking, I am not impressed.  The wind on Thursday.  That’s another story.  More on that in another blog post perhaps.

Ironic that I was supposed to leave this morning for Overland Park, but I postponed that trip due to the weather affecting Dodge City.  It now appears that Overland Park (southwest suburb of KC) may bear the brunt of that southern storm when it kicks out north on Thursday/Thursday night and bombs out as it does so.  The cyclogenesis as it lifts north will be tremendous — especially once the arctic air becomes involved and that northern High Plains system becomes involved and ultimately merges with the southern storm.  Here is the portion of the official Area Forecast Discussion I wrote at work earlier this morning spelling out all the meteorological insight:

EVEN AT THIS LATE HOURLY LEADING UP TO THE EVENT...STILL MANY  
QUESTIONS...PARTICULARLY AROUND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WHERE  
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. BY IN LARGE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE  
TURNING INTO A BIG DUD FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...FROM A SNOW  
STANDPOINT. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN EVENT SINCE LATE  
LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN THE MAIN HAZARD UP TO THIS POINT...AND ROADS  
HAVE BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AREAWIDE. THE WIND AND SNOW...MOST  
LIKELY LIGHT SNOW...WILL BE THE SECOND PHASE OF THIS EVENT...LATER  
ON TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.  

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE CYCLONE CLOSING OFF ALONG THE AZ/NM  
BORDER AS OF 09Z. WILL FOLLOW THE BROAD H7 LOW CENTER AND H7 RH>90  
PERCENT FIELDS FOR WHERE SNOW WILL TRACK. FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS  
HARD TO FIND AT H7, SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT...JUST A LARGE SPATIAL AREA OF LOW  
ACCUMULATION RATE SNOW NEAR THE H7 VORT AXIS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE 06Z NAM DOES HINT AT SMALL PV ANOMALY  
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY  
THIS EVENING WHICH MAY HELP BOOST PRECIPITATION RATES...BUT IT IS  
REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS. THAT BEING SAID...ANY HINT AT  
H7 CONVERGENCE NEAR THE H7 LOW WILL PROMOTE INCREASED  
FRONTOGENESIS AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL RATES...BUT THIS IS GOING TO  
BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE MAJOR MID  
LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL BE TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTH  
TEXAS...THEN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.  
MEANWHILE...THE MONTANA/WYOMING VORT WILL MOVE SOUTH-  
SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN  
VORT...WHILE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR SNOW  
AMOUNTS...AM JUST GOING TO GO WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH FORECAST  
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...BUT IF THE 06Z NAM12 IS ON TO SOMETHING  
REGARDING THE MESOSCALE DETAILS...THEN SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE  
SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.   

WE WILL NOT MISS OUT ON THE WIND. THANKS TO THE NORTHERN  
VORT...SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE VERY GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN  
MONTANA WITH 1036MB HIGH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PROVIDE  
THE GREAT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC RESPONSE WITH A DEEPENING  
SUB 995MB LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS. IN BETWEEN...THE GRADIENT WILL BE  
VERY STRONG...AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE LATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST OCCURRING MIDDAY THURSDAY. EVEN WITH  
JUST AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY...BLIZZARD OR NEAR  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL  
LIKELY REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 40  
TO PERHAPS 50 KNOT RANGE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE WIND EVENT.  
FRESH, NON-COMPACTED SNOWFALL WILL WHIP AROUND SUBSTANTIALLY  
CAUSING PERHAPS SEVERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH JUST ONE INCH OF  
ACCUMULATION. EVEN IF LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALLS DURING THE WIND  
EVENT THURSDAY...GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE AREAS THAT SEE 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. THIS IS THE REASONING  
FOR CONTINUING WITH THE BLIZZARD WATCH...WITH ONE MORE SHIFT TO  
RE-EVALUATE BEFORE UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE DDC FA OR DROPPING THE WATCH IF THE SNOW DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.   

-UMSCHEID