High Plains Drifter

Shifting my thinking back northwest into the TX Panhandle in favor of the ECMWF and UKMET models. A lot of folks (mainly non-meteorologist winter weather enthusiasts and storm chasers) love to look at the NAM model in the 36 hr+ time frame with winter storms.  That is fine and all, but when there is disagreement between the NAM and the more reliable global spectral models (GSM >> UKMET, ECMWF, GFS, Canadian GEM), the GSM prevails.  The UKMET and the ECMWF are nearly identical with a slower solution and taking the mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly northeast through West Texas. ..the nose of which into the TX Panhandle Thursday/Thursday evening (28th).  The 700mb low will track across the southern TX Panhandle, and will be most mature as it exits eastern NM and enters the southern TX Panhandle Thursday and Thursday night.  The 700mb RH and Wind fields off these models are rather different vs. the NAM.  The NAM appears to be veering winds out too quickly and I think the convective parameterization scheme is causing some upscale growth havoc which is limiting precipitation across much of the TX Panhandle (storm total QPF of 0.6 to 0.8″ instead of 1.2 to 1.4″)  I’m still worried about the stubborn warm layer aloft, too.  Last post’s idea of going to I-40 at either Erick or Elk City is looking less favorable now after assessing the GSM solutions instead of blindly looking at the NAM.   I can still look at the 12z model runs before making a commitment on a target city, but I am becoming more convinced that the Northern TX Panhandle is the place to be regarding heavy snow (12 to 15″).  I predict that the NAM model will begin to trend toward the GSM solutions (mainly the UKMET and ECMWF compromise) in the 12z run or perhaps as late as the 00z run late tonight.  I am now thinking as far west as Dumas, TX to document this storm.