High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

May 5, 2005

Storm Chasing May 7-8

Filed under: Chase Forecasts/Outlooks,Storm Chasing — storm300 @ 11:08 pm

Welp, the first significant chase event of the spring season will commence this weekend. I am off work May 7-9, so I am free to roam the plains. This weekend chasing situation is one where there will probably be a widespread "target" for chaseable supercell thunderstorms from South Dakota to North Texas. The entire dryline from Nebraska down into West TX is vulnerable to good storms with widespread high amounts of instability and low level moisture, along with deep layer shear and subtle cold advection in the mid levels.

In this situation, It may be best to chase closest to home, which I may very well end up doing. I am very leery chasing eastern TX Panhandle and Western OK on Saturday given the congruence of a number of things that could make it a "zoo" of chasers out there…. It’s May 7th, It’s a Saturday, It’s the first good chase day in a long time, It marks the beginning of many storm chasers’ "chasecations". I have visions of "Sitka" in my mind, and this isn’t even Memorial Day Weekend! Thankfully, there will be the large area of potential supercell thunderstorms, so the "hordes" should be dispersed.

The slow moving upper trough will allow the the front/dryline to slugishly move eastward such that Sunday’s convective activity will probably fire from Northwest Iowa south through eastern KS… down into N. Texas. I really like the looks of North Texas, but this is quite a haul from Dodge City, althought it *may* be worth it.

I just try to avoid Oklahoma at all costs during the peak of storm chase season (roughly the 1st week of May through the 1st week of June)…. I’m hoping for a locally enhanced area in NW KS or something ahead of the trough… I can simply never go wrong, many times, chasing in my home state. -Mu

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