The 18z GFS model is revealing a “best-case scenario” for a major snowstorm in Dodge City. Taken at face value (which is a dangerous thing to do with any model!), the 18/18z rendition of the GFS evolves a very deep, slow-moving, compact 700mb low across far southwest Kansas during the day Monday 20th. Below is a 6-panel graphic I whipped together, graphics taken from the ARL-Ready website. In events like this where deep cyclogenesis is involved, I love to use the 700mb low track for the placement of the heaviest snow with the “meat” of the storm. An old-school heavy snow forecasting tool is the 700mb low track, and to me, in situations with strong 700mb cyclogenesis like in this case, it is a very good tool. Very impressive snow rates can exist with deep, slow moving, and compact 700mb lows. Well, we have a beauty of one showing up in all the models for Monday. The track of it is extremely critical. If the 700mb tracks just north of Dodge, then the Ness City to Wakeeney corridor will get a foot or more of snow. If the 700mb low tracks where the 18/18z GFS suggests, then the areas from Garden City to Dodge City to Larned will get an easy foot… given the moisture at play. The key? A deepening, and crawling 700mb low. That’s how we get the footers here in SW KS. The trends in the model runs continue to support this. This is getting rather exciting!
