Tornadoes in Southwest Kansas possible on 4/22. Interesting setup tomorrow… the NAM has begun a trend bringing the warm front farther north into western Kansas like what the GFS and the ECMWF has been showing the past couple of days. I was worried that the low stratus would keep most of western KS shrouded in a more stable airmass… limiting CAPE and potential for widespread severe this far north into southwest Kansas. Well, the 22/00z NAM has quite a bit more CAPE farther north… at the nose of the 500mb speed max… with pretty impressive cold advection at 500mb. 850mb winds will ramp up to around 40+ knots from 00z to 03z with wild low level hodographs from Dodge City south into the eastern Texas Panhandle. This is a favorable environment for late evening tornadoes. The only limiting factor for significant tornadoes will be quantity of low level moisture…. with dewpoints likely at or below 61°F. Other than that, the pattern looks fairly vulnerable to tornadic storms in the 00z to 03z time frame.
Below is an IDV four-panel of the 22/00z NAM model valid 03z April 23 (10pm Central Time the 22nd). Looking pretty darn impressive… and a long evening at work perhaps for me on overtime, as I’m on a day shift at WFO Dodge City tomorrow… so no storm chasing for me. Good luck to all the storm chasers heading out…
