High Plains Drifter

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and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
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April 22, 2010

Southwest Kansas Severe Weather 4/22/2010

Filed under: General Weather & Forecasting — Mike U @ 12:31 am

Tornadoes in Southwest Kansas possible on 4/22. Interesting setup tomorrow… the NAM has begun a trend bringing the warm front farther north into western Kansas like what the GFS and the ECMWF has been showing the past couple of days.  I was worried that the low stratus would keep most of western KS shrouded in a more stable airmass… limiting CAPE and potential for widespread severe this far north into southwest Kansas.  Well, the 22/00z NAM has quite a bit more CAPE farther north… at the nose of the 500mb speed max… with pretty impressive cold advection at 500mb.  850mb winds will ramp up to around 40+ knots from 00z to 03z with wild low level hodographs from Dodge City south into the eastern Texas Panhandle.  This is a favorable environment for late evening tornadoes.  The only limiting factor for significant tornadoes will be quantity of low level moisture…. with dewpoints likely at or below 61°F.  Other than that, the pattern looks fairly vulnerable to tornadic storms in the 00z to 03z time frame.

Below is an IDV four-panel of the 22/00z NAM model valid 03z April 23 (10pm Central Time the 22nd).  Looking pretty darn impressive… and a long evening at work perhaps for me on overtime, as I’m on a day shift at WFO Dodge City tomorrow… so no storm chasing for me.  Good luck to all the storm chasers heading out…


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