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I have been taken a leisurely drive east on FM road 145 across the far
southern TX Panhandle this afternoon. The cumulus field continues to
slowly grow and the way it looks, it appears at least one small storm
may form out of this as the mesoscale surface wind flow environment
becomes increasingly convergent toward 00z. the SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 400-500 J/kg of SBCAPE in this area with lower 30s
dewpoints. Obviously, this is pretty pathetic for decent
surface-based storms, however mid level temperatures are really cool.
500mb temps are around -18C and 700mb temps are around +1 or +2C. I
will continue my slow drive toward the Caprock Canyon late this
afternoon. If no storm develops, I’ll spend a little bit around the
Canyon and do some photography around there during golden hour light.
Beyond today…
I’ve looked more at tomorrow, and the more I look the more I am
discouraged about chaseable storms in my domain. I usually draw my
line about I-35 on the east edge and about a Junction to Killeen, TX
line in the south edge. If I was really desperate for a storm and the
pattern looked sucky for the remainder of my vacation, then yeah, I’d
probably go for it, but the Wednesday and beyond period look pretty
good…especially toward this weekend when the real moisture finally
gets back into the southern Plains.
So, here is the updated plan — I will head back to Dodge City
tonight, more than likely. It will probably be pretty late. Monday,
I’ll take care of a few outstanding chores and such in Dodge, and then
I will re-evaluate the next move. Since Tuesday will most assuredly
be a down day too, I may hang around Dodge Tuesday, too, and save some
money… then head out again Wednesday morning for western Nebraska.
My eye keeps being drawn toward western Nebraska… perhaps Sand Hill
region… Wednesday. Thursday, the GFS has a pretty good front moving
south with the first wave…but stalling out somewhere across southern
Oklahoma perhaps. It may be a long drive from Wednesday’s western
Nebraska play to Thursday’s southern Oklahoma play (at least as it
appears now??). These things usually change… much like my itinerary
for today and tomorrow. More later!