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High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

April 28, 2010

Chase Trip Day Five (Apr 28) Forecast

Filed under: Early Chase Trip 2010 — Mike U @ 10:04 am

Chase day across western Nebraska. While the prospects look quite marginal, I will be storm chasing today.  Low level moisture will be very marginal for organized strong/severe storms, however strong convergence and frontogenetic forcing will provide sufficient lift to generate storms…perhaps as far south as I-80 near Sidney, NE.  I will be heading to Ogallala from Thedford where I will have lunch and re-evaluate my next move.  For what it’s worth, the new NAM has just over 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE in a small area near Ogallala by 00z, but I think the models (especially the RUC with it’s upper 50s dewpoints) may be over predicting the dewpoint increase by 00z (7pm CDT), therefore in reality, with mid44 or 45 dewpoints at best converging in this small area, seems more like 700 or 800 J/kg would be more realistic… still enough for a loosely organized strong, perhaps isolated severe storm given the very good wind shear profile.

1 Comment »

  1. Hi Mike,

    I’ll be up in the area today… but probably won’t arrive until 0Z. I’ll stop and say “hi” if I see ya’. The RUC is going crazy with the CAPE, maxing at 3300J/kg surface-based between Big Springs and Imperial. If we even realize half of that, I’d be happy. Lol.

    Comment by Dann Cianca — April 28, 2010 @ 10:39 am

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