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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

May 2, 2010

Chase Trip Day Nine (May 2) Forecast

Filed under: Early Chase Trip 2010 — Mike U @ 11:51 am

Most likely the last day of the chase/photography trip — Western Kansas. I am at home in Dodge City to begin today, and it appears I do not have to go very far at all for potentially photogenic storms.  Some residual low level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-40s were located across central Kansas late this morning.  Surface winds are expected to become southeast or east-southeast which may draw some of this moisture back west into portions of southwest Kansas by late this afternoon.  The latest 15z RUC suggests that strongest surface convergence will occur in west-central Kansas perhaps around Ness City to Dighton, and it develops some convective QPF in this area by late this afternoon/early this evening.  This is an extremely marginal day for strong/severe storms, but an isolated hail storm or two cannot be ruled out, and could be somewhat photogenic.  I will likely leave Dodge around 2:00pm or so, or perhaps later based on hourly analysis.

This will be the last forecast post of my storm chasing/photography vacation unless things change in the models — mid level temperatures will be warming with no increase in moisture.  A front will move into western Nebraska late Tuesday, but there won’t be any moisture to speak of… not even mid-upper 40s dewpoints more than likely.  I will be coming back to Dodge City after today’s chase and spend the final two days, Monday and Tuesday, at home getting ready for the start of upcoming midnight shifts which begin Wednesday Night.

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