Well as any good forecaster should do, I’m here to verify my forecast from yesterday’s virtual chase. My primary northern target to intercept the first supercells of the day in north central KS west of Highway 81 didn’t really pan out. Storms developed in the target area around 17z or so just as I had though, however too many storms developed given the lack of a “cap” and the orientation of the convection was north-south…with prevailing mean shear vectors being of strong southerly component, that did not allow for discrete cells to develop, but rather a messy line of marginally severe cells (see left radar panel below). My southern (secondary) target in southern Oklahoma worked out a little better. A classic supercell developed near Duncan, OK by mid-afternoon which did produce at least one tornado near the town of Velma, according to a few storm chaser accounts.
