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High Plains Drifter

disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

June 26, 2010

Chase Trip Day Ten (June 26) Forecast

Filed under: Chase Forecasts/Outlooks,Late Chase Trip 2010,Storm Chasing — Mike U @ 10:08 am

…Southeastern quarter of South Dakota…
I am at a rest area along I-28 as of 10am CDT and am targeting South Dakota for today’s chase.  Abundant moisture with lower 70s dewpoints will yield SB CAPE around 4,000 to 5,000 J/kg which will combine with adequate deep layer shear for fairly aggressive severe storms including perhaps tornadic supercells.  One thing I don’t like to see is the expansive mid level cloud cover and light shower activity from western Nebraska into the western half of South Dakota… seemingly moving into the target area.  We’ll see how that evolves as the day goes on, but all the models show pretty vigorous convective QPF signals this afternoon/evening, especially across eastern South Dakota.  Find the convergence and easterly low level winds for the best shot at a tornadic supercell..  more later.

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