High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

December 29, 2010

Central Plains New Years Eve Winter Storm [post 2]

Filed under: 2010 Dec 31 — Mike U @ 1:39 pm

Another miss — Snow drought to continue in Southwest Kansas. It seems to be pretty clear now that the track of the storm is going to be such that Southwest Kansas will see the dry intrusion as cyclogenesis occur basically right over western Kansas… which is NOT where you want cyclogenesis to be occurring (over your head).  At any rate, at least some portion of the High Plains will see some winter precipitation.  I think if I had the opportunity to “snow chase” this system (which I don’t due to work), I would be on the fence with this one.  A lead wave will push significant Gulf of Mexico moisture east, which will limit snowfall totals.  Nevertheless, the forcing for ascent will be very good, and there will be an axis of heavy snow (6″ or greater).  Strong winds creating a decent blowing/drifting snow event would have me interested.  I kind of like Ogallala, NE right now as my virtual snow chase target (considering Dodge City as my starting point) with 6-9″ and 20-35 mph north winds.  This would extend northeast to north-central Nebraska into southern and eastern South Dakota…and eventually up into Minnesota (again!!).  See Figure 2 for details from the latest GFS model.  Figure 1 shows a dProg/dT of the GFS over the last 4 runs of the 500mb forecast and SLP/Precipitation.  The deterministic GFS appears to be locked into this solution taking the upper low from far southeast Colorado through Nebraska.  This is similar to the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF.


Figure 1


Figure 2

7 Comments »

  1. My work here is done. The Great Jinxer signing off.

    Comment by Michael Phelps — December 29, 2010 @ 2:23 pm

  2. How come I have this bad feeling we may only average 3-4″ of snow the ENTIRE winter across most of kansas?

    Comment by Jon Behle — December 29, 2010 @ 3:24 pm

  3. Fine work as always Phelpsies :)

    Comment by Mike Umscheid — December 29, 2010 @ 4:25 pm

  4. Nice write-up, Mike! Its nice to finally be seeing some snow here in Denver as we’ve had a whopping 1.5″ so far this season! Looking forward to it out here!

    Comment by Tony Laubach — December 29, 2010 @ 5:24 pm

  5. Thanks Tony, yeah I think Denver may come out okay with this one.

    Comment by Mike Umscheid — December 29, 2010 @ 6:26 pm

  6. Yea and now that I’m out of town Denver will get pounded!

    Comment by Damen Winslow — December 29, 2010 @ 7:23 pm

  7. Dunno if I’d completely give up on it yet, Mike… That digging jet streak off the Pacific coast doesn’t appear to be well sampled in the data yet….

    Comment by Jim Johnson — December 29, 2010 @ 8:25 pm

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