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Another miss — Snow drought to continue in Southwest Kansas. It seems to be pretty clear now that the track of the storm is going to be such that Southwest Kansas will see the dry intrusion as cyclogenesis occur basically right over western Kansas… which is NOT where you want cyclogenesis to be occurring (over your head). At any rate, at least some portion of the High Plains will see some winter precipitation. I think if I had the opportunity to “snow chase” this system (which I don’t due to work), I would be on the fence with this one. A lead wave will push significant Gulf of Mexico moisture east, which will limit snowfall totals. Nevertheless, the forcing for ascent will be very good, and there will be an axis of heavy snow (6″ or greater). Strong winds creating a decent blowing/drifting snow event would have me interested. I kind of like Ogallala, NE right now as my virtual snow chase target (considering Dodge City as my starting point) with 6-9″ and 20-35 mph north winds. This would extend northeast to north-central Nebraska into southern and eastern South Dakota…and eventually up into Minnesota (again!!). See Figure 2 for details from the latest GFS model. Figure 1 shows a dProg/dT of the GFS over the last 4 runs of the 500mb forecast and SLP/Precipitation. The deterministic GFS appears to be locked into this solution taking the upper low from far southeast Colorado through Nebraska. This is similar to the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF.