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High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

January 8, 2011

Southwest Kansas Winter Storm January 9-10 [post 1]

Filed under: 2011 Jan 10 — Mike U @ 9:15 pm

Accumulating snow, strong winds, and cold temps headed for Southwest Kansas. We are within 30 hours of the beginning of a winter storm to affect western Kansas. I have been working midnight shifts working this event at the Dodge City NWSFO, but the time has come to begin blogging a little bit about the storm. I think we’ll see 5 to 7″ of snow in Dodge City… that is my own personal prediction at this point based on the latest forecast track/strength of the approaching storm from various model inputs. Figure 1 shows the MSLP and surface wind pattern. Note the surface circulation from near Gage, OK to Childress, TX. This good for moderate/heavy snow for much of Southwest Kansas. This low level development is going to form in the left exit region of an upper level jet streak, which is shown in blue in Figure 2. The jet streak dynamics will be quite good. Winds will shift at the surface from southeast to northeast Monday morning…then to the north and increasing 20-30 mph by midday in Dodge City. Substantial blowing and drifting snow will occur across much of Southwest Kansas. The ECMWF model has pegged this for a number of runs now, and the NCEP models are finally trying to catch up with the ECMWF regarding the magnitude of wind and cold behind the front. Monday will be quite brutal around Dodge City.


Figure 1


Figure 2

9 Comments »

  1. I hope your right about tomorrow..or you will be having a few out of town guest sleepig over!

    Comment by Brenda Webb — January 8, 2011 @ 9:23 pm

  2. I still maintain that we’ll be okay for the tournament, even though light snow may begin to fall by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will be around 30 to 34 or so through the early evening, so roads shouldn’t get bad until Sunday night. That’s how it looks to me at this point.

    Comment by Mike Umscheid — January 8, 2011 @ 10:23 pm

  3. ok a few told me they are reading what you write! fingers crossed

    Comment by Brenda Webb — January 8, 2011 @ 11:23 pm

  4. Kow!

    Comment by Tom Wright — January 9, 2011 @ 12:23 am

  5. Mike – I have a question about this winter storm.

    Comment by Marc Russell — January 9, 2011 @ 1:23 am

  6. Mike – how much beer do I need to ride it out? Do you have some kind of assessment for this impact?

    Comment by Marc Russell — January 9, 2011 @ 2:25 am

  7. I have about 54 here, that is my prediction.

    Comment by Jerry Segraves — January 9, 2011 @ 3:26 am

  8. I think Wichita goes below zero for a low Tuesday night if we clear out with the arctic high settling in.

    Comment by James Caruso — January 9, 2011 @ 4:25 am

  9. WE got a good little snow storm working here in Joco

    Comment by Tony Glickley — January 9, 2011 @ 5:23 am

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