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High Plains Drifter


disclaimer:  "The meteorological views/forecast thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do not necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

January 9, 2011

Southwest Kansas Winter Weather Event January 9-10 [post 2]

Filed under: 2011 Jan 10 — Mike U @ 10:09 pm

The “haves” and the “have nots” — The storm is coming out across the Rockies in pieces — not good for heavy snow in Dodge City. My updated thinking is 1-3″ in Dodge City for this event.  We’ve started to get some very light snow here at my house just north of town, but only a dusting of accumulation so far.  The expected cyclogenesis from the surface to about 700mb just isn’t going to take shape like earlier expected, and as such, only periods of light (maybe moderate at times) snow will occur through Monday.  Since the storm will  not be as developed for southwest Kansas, the winds behind the low will not be as strong, so the blowing and drifting component will also likely be less than I previously thought.  Unless radar echoes blossom in the area highlighted in Figure 2 (associated with the “x” near the Colorado-Utah border as shown in Figure 1) through the night, then this just isn’t going to happen for most of Southwest Kansas along and south of Highway 50.  The Hays and Wakeeney areas have already seen an inch or two of snow with the first little mesoscale wave while we were left high and dry in Dodge for the most part.  Yet another “blah” event it would appear.


Figure 1

Figure 2

Meanwhile, the real excitement isn’t even occurring across the Central Plains, but in the Southeast.  A major ice and snow storm is underway across much of the Gulf Coast/Southeast region (except for near the coast where it’s warm enough for all rain):


Figure 3


Figure 4

23 Comments »

  1. oh crap, you’re on this bandwagon as well?! We’re fucked.

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 9, 2011 @ 10:23 pm

  2. As you will come to find out, this is the norm for around here :-/

    Comment by Mike Umscheid — January 9, 2011 @ 11:24 pm

  3. Mike, Check the temps over the Yukon and Northwest Territory… It simply isn’t that cold in the arctic high. THIS is why I am always so very cautious about these winter storms. They almost always don’t live up to the advertising…

    Comment by Jim Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 12:24 am

  4. I was looking forward to this night and then you stomped it with your evil hoofs. Damn. I was thinking Larry might call in Emergency Personal only. I was on an X shift. AH!

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 1:25 am

  5. 7 inches on the ground in Yuma County, Colorado.

    Comment by Jeff Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 2:24 am

  6. Par for the course in winter weather forecasting.

    Comment by Mike Umscheid — January 10, 2011 @ 3:23 am

  7. 2 to 5 across much of GLD’s area.

    Comment by Jeff Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 4:26 am

  8. Jim, surface pressures are around 1050 hPA. Yes, temperatures aren’t there but with a 570 hPA high around Alaska. You can see why we were worried and the surface pressures sort of reflect it. :) Hind sight is in the beholder.

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 5:26 am

  9. Make sure you update the forecast with that new thinking as soon as you get in…that will guarantee us the original amounts! It blows 20-30 knots behind every front.

    Comment by Tom Wright — January 10, 2011 @ 6:23 am

  10. We missed most of it here in the Mile High City as well, unless you live on the south end that is. Up north we maybe have 4 inches now and it appears the heaviest snows have shifted to the eastern part of our state.

    Comment by Damen Winslow — January 10, 2011 @ 7:23 am

  11. Tom, don’t be so sardonic :)

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 8:24 am

  12. oh shit its 930 I better get ready for work LOL

    Comment by Mike Umscheid — January 10, 2011 @ 9:24 am

  13. Well in the immortal words of another one “should be a quiet one”. /unconvinced_of_kansas_wx_bah_humbug

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 10:27 am

  14. U still at home???????????? Better hurry.

    Comment by Jeff Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 11:25 am

  15. Jeff, He’s got 30 minutes. The stink could make it faster to work than his home 2 miles north.

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 12:23 pm

  16. Yeah, but he always has to make a Wendy’s run.

    Comment by Jeff Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 1:24 pm

  17. hmm. well not sure where the stink is coming from.

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 2:24 pm

  18. You’re about to get a phone call, K.

    Comment by Jeff Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 3:23 pm

  19. yeah, I know, bye. E shift. Bleck.

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 4:23 pm

  20. Sorry bout that…but thanks for taking one for the team!

    Comment by Matt Gerard — January 10, 2011 @ 5:23 pm

  21. @Kelly… True about hindsight. However, Jumping overboard before the boat starts to sink is also true… ;-)

    Comment by Jim Johnson — January 10, 2011 @ 6:23 pm

  22. Well Mike was right. Forecast fail. Thank good for Coffee at 245 AM.

    Comment by Kelly Sugden — January 10, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

  23. We missed mst parts too. Better luck next time!

    Comment by Dave — January 17, 2011 @ 4:01 pm

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